022 
FXUS62 KJAX 031820
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
220 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Offshore trough is expected to move inland over the course of the
day bringing increased chances for precipitation throughout the
forecast area with the highest likelihood for rainfall occuring
east of the I-75 corridor over northeast Florida and then becoming
more dispersed later tonight. Embedded thunderstorms are possible
in association with heavier convection this afternoon however the
probabilities of storms developing remains fairly low. Patchy fog
developments are possible over inland areas early Monday morning,
however fog is not expected to be overly dense due to lingering
high deck clouds. Overnight low temperatures will be in the upper
60s over inland areas and in the lower 70s for locations along the
shoreline and adjacent to the St Johns River.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]...

Prevailing flow will shift about to become more southerly next
week as high pressure near the Carolina coast moves further out to
the east and a stalling frontal boundary from out of the west 
will position an area of low pressure across the southeastern US, 
ahead of the frontal boundary. PWAT levels are expected to rise to
about 1.7 to 2.0 inches by Thursday with the moist southerly flow
settling in resulting in increased chances for convective 
developments, with the highest chances for showers and storms 
occuring over inland southeast Georgia. Temperatures for the 
beginning of next week will be slightly above the climatological 
average with daily highs reaching into the mid to upper 80s and 
overnight low temps in the upper 60s and lower 70s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Southwesterly flow will persist over the region until the end of
the week with the cold front off to the west moving in over the
forecast area by the weekend. Numerous showers and storms are
expected for the the latter part of the week as shortwave energy
travels across the region from out of the west. A potential
tropical disturbance may form over Atlantic waters out to the ease
during this period. Temperatures will experience a gradual cooling
trend by the end of next week with temps dropping down to normal
seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Monday]

Diurnal heating has finally triggered widely scattered showers
with some brief heavy rainfall possible at CRG in the 17-19Z time
frame, otherwise have continued the VCSH at all NE FL TAF sites as
sea breeze slowly pushes inland, already cleared SGJ, and will
make it to CRG by 19Z, JAX by 20z and VQQ by 21z. Slightly drier
airmass at SSI will likely keep rainfall chances too low at SSI so
have taken out VCSH with this package. Inland shower chances will
linger at VQQ/GNV until 00z, otherwise expect mainly VFR conds
through the night as high clouds increase from the west over the
region, although some boundary layer cooling overnight will still
lead to possible MVFR fog at GNV/VQQ in the 07-11Z time frame
around sunrise. Any developing shower activity on Monday due to
diurnal heating will likely hold off until the very end of the
current TAF period around 17-18Z with rainfall chances too low to
include any VCSH at this time.

&&

.MARINE...

A coastal trough over the waters will lead to scattered showers
and embedded storms today. High pressure will be northeast of the
region this weekend. Long period swells from distant Hurricane 
Sam will continue to affect the area waters this weekend with 
elevated seas expected. A frontal boundary will approach the 
waters Wednesday and stall over the waters through the end of the 
week with waves of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents at the beaches today, and
moderate risk of rip currents on Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The Santa Fe at Three Rivers Estates continues in Minor Flood.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  67  87  67  84  68 /  10  40  20  60  40 
SSI  72  84  73  84  73 /  10  20  30  60  40 
JAX  70  87  71  87  73 /  10  20  30  50  40 
SGJ  70  85  72  86  73 /  10  20  20  40  30 
GNV  67  88  67  88  70 /  10  20  10  40  20 
OCF  68  89  69  89  71 /  10  20  10  30  20 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

AM...None.
&&