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556 FXUS64 KMAF 231727 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1227 PM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 ...New AVIATION... See the 18z aviation discussion below. .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will generally be out of the south with some gusts possible this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 Weak southeasterly surface flow has returned to the CWA that will cause high temps to increase back up to near normal today. High pressure over southeastern New Mexico and West Texas will slowly move east across the area keeping skies mostly clear and allowing for a beautiful day. Tomorrow the ridge axis will be to our east as a large area of low pressure develops over the southwestern U.S./Mexico border. A disturbance moving north out of Mexico around the periphery of this low will increase instability enough in our far western counties, especially the higher terrain, that we may see a few isolated showers and storms develop with the help of afternoon heating. Highs will again remain near normal and this forecast held closely to NBM guidance. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021 The extended portion of the forecast has become apparently wetter. For this weekend, medium range models are showing a cutoff upper low over the Baja California with weak upper ridging over West TX and southeastern NM. The upper low is expected to steadily progress ewd towards our forecast area into early next week. As it does so, hghts aloft will begin to decrease and upper lvl winds will shift out of the southwest. We should begin to see increasing cloud cover as Pacific moisture aloft is advected nwd ahead of the upper low. At the sfc, winds will remain out of the south to southeast, allowing dewpoints to rise back into the low to mid 50s. High temperatures will remain near climatological norms in the mid to upper 80s, although a few 90s will be seen in the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the western mountain areas both Saturday and Sunday as energy assocd with the upper low begins to arrive. By early next week, the upper lvl low will shift over eastern NM, enhancing lift over our region. High temperatures will be noticeably cooler throughout the week due to increasing low lvl moisture and cloud cover. Precipitation chances will ramp up across the area beginning Monday and especially on Tuesday afternoon. The upper low will eventually get picked up and carried into the central plains during the middle of next week as a secondary trough digs over the Intermountain West. The evolution of this second trough is still in question, but should help to maintain precipitation chances through the latter half of next week. -Salerno && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 87 59 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 89 59 87 57 / 0 0 10 0 Dryden 89 60 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 89 61 88 59 / 0 0 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 79 62 77 59 / 0 10 10 10 Hobbs 85 57 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 83 54 82 54 / 0 10 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 86 59 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 87 60 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 90 60 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...80 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...80