986 
FXUS62 KFFC 222322 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
722 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021



...00Z Aviation Area Forecast Discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 307 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021/ 

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

As the short term period begins, an deepening upper level low is 
centered near the Kentucky/Indiana border, with an associated 
surface cyclone positioned to its immediate east. A cold front 
extending from this low is currently extending into the forecast 
area. It has cleared the metro Atlanta area and is oriented along an 
axis to the immediate east of Columbus to Athens, with showers and 
isolated thunderstorms ongoing ahead of the front. As the front 
moves southeastward through the forecast area, it will encounter air 
that has had a little more of a chance to destabilize, with SBCAPE 
values of 1500-2000 J/kg. 0-1 km wind shear ahead of the front 
appears to be weak, at no more than 10-15 kts. The threat for severe 
weather appears to be fairly limited, but the increased instability 
could lead to the possibility of isolated storms becoming strong and 
capable of producing locally heavy rain and gusty winds. As the 
parent low pressure system moves away to the northeast and becomes 
vertically stacked, the front will continue to push through the 
forecast area, clearing it the east by late tonight.

In the areas behind the frontal boundary, low-level winds will shift 
to northwesterly at 10-15 kts with gusts as high as 25 kts and 
remain so into the overnight hours before diminishing to 7-10 kts by 
08Z. The northwesterly flow on the backside of the cutoff low will 
usher in a significantly cooler and drier airmass. The 1.75 to 2" 
perceptible water values will mercifully be coming to an end, 
replaced by PWATs as low as 0.35 to 0.5" by as early as Thursday 
morning. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the 50s across 
much of north and central Georgia, with some upper 40s possible in 
the far northern tier. These low temperatures will be 5-8 degrees 
below average for this time of the year. Benign and rain-free 
conditions will persist throughout the day on Thursday, with mostly 
clear skies and high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s in far 
north Georgia to the upper 70s in east-central Georgia. Another 
brisk night is expected during the overnight hours Thursday into 
Friday morning, with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

King

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

The extended opens to a crisp, fall-like morning on Friday. Our post 
frontal airmass continues to settle in, aided in part by an 
elongated surface high that sets up over the greater part of the 
eastern CONUS. Mostly clear and dry conditions will stick around for 
the next several days, with PWATs are progged to be as low as 0.35" 
across portions of the CWA, hovering just around the climatological 
minimum for this time of year. High temperatures are expected to 
remain 5-7 degrees below average to round off the week, only 
creeping into the lower 70s north of the 1-85 corridor. 

As we move into the weekend, an upper level trough digs down across 
the Ohio River valley, with an attendant frontal boundary in tow. 
Partly cloudy conditions return Saturday as a result of a brief 
moisture return as the dry (precipitation-wise) cold front looks to 
skirt across the northern CWA boundary, and will then persist as 
moisture increases aloft in the wake of the trough. Otherwise, 
expect a gradual warming trend as the airmass moderates, with 
maximum and minimum temperatures rebounding to 5-7 degrees above 
climo as we reach mid-week. 

96

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions this forecast with only a few high clouds this
evening then SKC. NW sfc winds 10-14kts with gusts 20-22kts this 
evening decreasing to 5-10kts after 04Z then increasing to 
10-13kts with gusts to 20kts after 15Z Thurs. 

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update... 
High confidence on all elements

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          52  74  50  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Atlanta         52  71  51  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Blairsville     46  66  42  72 /   5   0   0   0 
Cartersville    49  70  47  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Columbus        54  75  53  78 /   0   0   0   0 
Gainesville     51  71  50  74 /   0   0   0   0 
Macon           53  75  51  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Rome            50  72  49  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Peachtree City  51  72  49  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Vidalia         57  76  55  79 /  20   0   0   0 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....Reaves
AVIATION...SNELSON