AFOS product AFDSJT
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTC

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSJT
Product Timestamp: 2021-09-14 17:19 UTC

Download date range (UTC midnight)
Bulk Download Bulk Download
531 
FXUS64 KSJT 141719
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

Hurricane Nicholas made landfall very early this morning along 
the middle Texas coast near Matagorda. The cyclone and its 
associated showers and thunderstorms will continue moving north- 
northeastward across extreme southeast Texas today. Meanwhile, our
area will see weak upper level ridging build in from the west as 
Nicholas pushes off to the east. This will keep our weather benign
through today and tonight. With easterly low level flow and some 
afternoon cloudiness have highs mainly in the mid 80s to lower 90s
similar to yesterday. Lows will dip back down into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

As Hurricane Nicholas continues it's trek up the coast and into 
Louisiana, a broad upper level ridge will take over as the 
dominating pattern by Thursday. Wednesday and Thursday will still 
see cooler, near normal temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. 
Temperatures start to heat back up into the mid to upper 90s by 
Friday and continue into the weekend as the ridge strengthens 
overhead. The 850 mb thermal ridge will set back into the area with 
temperatures warming into the 23-26 deg C range through the weekend. 
Surface flow will continue in a general south to southeasterly 
direction, bringing in some gulf moisture and keeping our dew points 
consistently in the 60s, even approaching 70 in some of our 
southeastern counties. Models are indicating potential diurnal 
showers through the period due to the abundance of moisture but have 
generally kept PoPs below slight chance due to high amounts of model 
inconsistency and broad level subsidence from the ridge. Overall 
conditions look very summer-like heading into next week: hot and 
mainly dry. 

But we may have some good news... We are keeping our eyes on the 
next big potential weather maker for West Central Texas - an upper 
level trough progged to swing through the southern plains next week 
Tuesday/Wednesday. This could bring with it the first significant 
cold front of the season - meaning much cooler temperatures and more 
significant chances for precipitation. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in 
general agreement with the timing of the front. It is still a ways 
out so we will keep continue to watch the models for run to run 
consistency. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

VFR next 24 hours with east to southeast winds generally 8 KTS or
less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 89  64  90  66 /   0   0   5   0 
San Angelo 	 90  64  90  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Junction 	 89  64  91  65 /   0   0   0   5 
Brownwood 	 89  64  90  66 /   5   0   0   5 
Sweetwater 	 91  65  90  66 /   0   0   5   0 
Ozona      	 90  64  91  66 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...04