National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDSJT
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDSJT
Product Timestamp: 2021-09-14 17:19 UTC
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531 FXUS64 KSJT 141719 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Hurricane Nicholas made landfall very early this morning along the middle Texas coast near Matagorda. The cyclone and its associated showers and thunderstorms will continue moving north- northeastward across extreme southeast Texas today. Meanwhile, our area will see weak upper level ridging build in from the west as Nicholas pushes off to the east. This will keep our weather benign through today and tonight. With easterly low level flow and some afternoon cloudiness have highs mainly in the mid 80s to lower 90s similar to yesterday. Lows will dip back down into the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 218 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 As Hurricane Nicholas continues it's trek up the coast and into Louisiana, a broad upper level ridge will take over as the dominating pattern by Thursday. Wednesday and Thursday will still see cooler, near normal temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Temperatures start to heat back up into the mid to upper 90s by Friday and continue into the weekend as the ridge strengthens overhead. The 850 mb thermal ridge will set back into the area with temperatures warming into the 23-26 deg C range through the weekend. Surface flow will continue in a general south to southeasterly direction, bringing in some gulf moisture and keeping our dew points consistently in the 60s, even approaching 70 in some of our southeastern counties. Models are indicating potential diurnal showers through the period due to the abundance of moisture but have generally kept PoPs below slight chance due to high amounts of model inconsistency and broad level subsidence from the ridge. Overall conditions look very summer-like heading into next week: hot and mainly dry. But we may have some good news... We are keeping our eyes on the next big potential weather maker for West Central Texas - an upper level trough progged to swing through the southern plains next week Tuesday/Wednesday. This could bring with it the first significant cold front of the season - meaning much cooler temperatures and more significant chances for precipitation. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in general agreement with the timing of the front. It is still a ways out so we will keep continue to watch the models for run to run consistency. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 VFR next 24 hours with east to southeast winds generally 8 KTS or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 89 64 90 66 / 0 0 5 0 San Angelo 90 64 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 89 64 91 65 / 0 0 0 5 Brownwood 89 64 90 66 / 5 0 0 5 Sweetwater 91 65 90 66 / 0 0 5 0 Ozona 90 64 91 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...04