119 
FXUS63 KGID 132333
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
633 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

Temperatures have over performed a bit this afternoon as after the 
morning fog burned off...sunshine overtook much of the local 
area. The one exception is across our far north...where cloud 
cover has been more persistent and an approaching front has begun 
so switch winds around from the north. While a few models were 
generating some thunderstorm activity across our local area with 
this front...most models have backed off some and think the best 
shot for any thunderstorm activity will largely remain to our 
north this afternoon...with slightly better chances working their
way in from the west late tonight as there will be some upper 
level support ahead of an approaching short wave. If a storm or 
two does get going this afternoon and clips our far north...could 
see some stronger storms...but overall think the chance for severe
weather is fairly marginal across our local area this afternoon 
and through the overnight hours.

As the front sinks south on Tuesday...there is a better signal
that we could see a bit more shower and thunderstorm activity
across the local area as the upper level wave crosses the 
region...but continue to think thunderstorm coverage will be 
fairly scattered in nature...with any strong thunderstorms limited
to portions of north central Kansas where the better instability 
will reside tomorrow. With a secondary push of cooler air 
forecast to cross the local area overnight tonight...while 
everyone may not see shower or thunderstorm activity over the next
24 hours...the entire forecast should be noticably cooler... 
especially considering the fact we overachieved high temperatures 
today. In generally...highs tomorrow afternoon should range from 
the lower 70s across our far north...to the mid 80s across 
portions of north central Kansas...which is actually just a couple
of degrees below normal for this time of year. 

This cooler weather will not last long...however...with temps 
expected to return to near normal for Wednesday...and well above 
normal for the remainder of the forecast period. There will be an 
additional front late Thursday night...and currently have some 
small pops across south central Nebraska with its passage...but 
confidence is low and the change in airmass will not be as 
significant...so temperatures will likely remain above normal 
Friday...before soaring over the upcoming weekend as a trough 
begins to dig across the west coast and ridging is noted locally. 
There is some discrepancy with the depth and progression of this 
trough...but either way...temperatures will likely approach 90 in 
many spots over the upcoming weekend as heights build aloft. 
Despite being close to 15 degrees above normal...record highs 
appear to be safe for the time being as they are in the upper 90s 
to near 100 over this time period.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

VFR conditions expected through the end of the TAF period. The
main concerns are for showers and thunderstorms that are expected
to develop overnight and last through the day tomorrow. Winds are
expected to generally be out of the north at around 10 kts and
less.  

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Shawkey