056 
FXUS64 KSJT 132327 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
627 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

TS Nicholas is expected to make landfall later this afternoon or
evening along the central or south Texas coast. A few showers have
moved into the southeast counties this afternoon associated with
weak lift from TS Nicholas and a tropical airmass/weak
instability. Most of showers should dissipate early this evening 
and then going with a dry forecast tonight and Tuesday. Overnight 
lows will be in the 60s with highs Tuesday in the mid 80s to lower
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

Tropical Storm Nicholas will be the main driver of our weather until 
Wednesday evening, when the storm system moves into Louisiana. High 
temperatures on Wednesday will be a few degrees lower than what 
we've seen the past few days, given lower 500mb heights, while a few 
showers will be possible Tuesday night and Wednesday over the Hill 
Country counties.  Heights will start rising again on Thursday as 
the upper-level ridge builds back in.  This should result in a dry 
forecast, along with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s by 
the end of the week and through the weekend.  Early next week, long-
range models show a deep upper-level trough dropping down into the 
central US. A surface cold front would come with it, generating rain 
chances and cooler temperatures for middle to late next week.  For 
now, this system will be monitored for potential impacts and run-to-
run consistency.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

Isolated to widely scattered showers over the area southeast of an
Ozona to Christoval to Cross Plains line will dissipate later this
evening. Late tonight and early Tuesday morning, low cloud
development is expected over mainly our Heartland and Northwest
Hill Country counties, but may extend as far north as KABI and as
far west as KSJT and KSOA. Carrying MVFR ceilings at KBBD and 
KJCT, with a scattered mention at our other TAF sites. With low-
level moisture remaining over the area, expecting a VFR-based
diurnal cumulus field into the afternoon, generally over the 
eastern half of our area. Mainly southeast winds this evening will
decrease to 3-6 knots. Winds on Tuesday will be mainly from the 
southeast or east- southeast at 4-8 knots. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 67  89  65  89 /   0   5   0  10 
San Angelo 	 66  90  65  91 /   5   5   0  10 
Junction 	 66  90  65  91 /  10  10   5  10 
Brownwood 	 67  87  65  88 /   5   5  10  10 
Sweetwater 	 66  91  66  91 /   0   0   0   5 
Ozona      	 66  90  66  92 /   5   5   0   5 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...19