266 
FXUS62 KKEY 131422
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1022 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021

.DISCUSSION...
The 12z sounding at KEY continues to reveal a moisture-rich
environment from the surface all the way up to the tropopause, 
with very little inhibition and steep low- and mid-level lapse 
rates. A weak stationary front continues to drape over the Florida
Peninsula, with a sharp ridge penetrating the Southeast United 
States from the Atlantic. Stabilization from numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms overnight resulted in a temporary lull in
convection this morning. However, visible satellite imagery shows
the residual stratocumulus deck over the CWA is quickly eroding. 
This should result in the return to quite unstable conditions, 
allowing for yet another uptick in rain and thunder for the late 
morning and afternoon forecast periods. With periods of lulls in 
convection expected, island communities should not struggle to 
reach their advertise highs of near 90. Overall the forecast 
remains on track and no changes are needed at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a 
robust ridge extending across the Atlantic and through the 
southeastern United States, gentle to moderate easterly breezes 
and higher than normal convective coverage will continue through 
this evening. Thereafter, the ridge will then weaken and 
retrograde eastward into the Atlantic, as a tropical disturbance 
is expected to form in the vicinity of the Bahamas. This will 
result in slackening southeast to south breezes and a return to 
near-normal rain and thunder chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
Shower activity is expected to wane throughout today. Due to the 
uncertainty in timing and location of precipitation, VCSH has been 
included at both terminals into this evening. Surface winds will be 
from the east at 5 to 10 knots. 

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1987, the daily record warm low of 86F was recorded 
in Marathon. This is also tied as the warmest low temperature 
recorded during the month of September. Temperature records in 
Marathon date back to 1950.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM
Data Acquisition.....AP

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