881 
FXUS63 KGID 131149
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
649 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

Issued a dense fog advisory around an hour ago due to the
decreasing visibility across the forecast area along with the 
expectation that the visibility will remain low until sometime 
between 8 and 10 pm. The areas of dense fog seem to be the biggest
problem within about 40 miles either side of I-80.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

Overview...
We will warm up a bit today, only to cool highs back down into 
the 70s for the most part on Tuesday and Wednesday. We will then 
see another noteworthy warmup late week into the weekend when 90 
degree weather should at least be possible in some areas. Most of
the forecast period will be dry with the exception of mainly small
chances for rain from tonight through Tuesday evening.

Today into Tonight...
The HRRR and SREF both indicate the possibility of some patchy fog
and low ceilings this morning as we near dawn. The wind is light
and conditions are generally favorable for fog development, thus
have added patchy morning fog to most Nebraska zones.

An upper level trough will track east across the Dakotas 
today and could result in a few showers and thunderstorms this 
afternoon, mainly north of our forecast area, but will keep a 
slight chance of showers/thunderstorms for some of our areas north
of highway 92. We could also see a few showers or thunderstorms
move into our forecast area from the west tonight. Currently,
these rain chances are pretty low and any precipitation would
probably be fairly isolated.

Tuesday...
Our forecast area will see what will probably be our best chance 
for precipitation and that is honestly not saying much. We have a
broad upper trough across the northern and central plains with a
sinking cold front that should be located over north central
Kansas by afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
along and north of this front, but currently only expecting 20-30
percent chances. The bigger news will be the cooler weather behind
the cold front with highs only in the lower 70s in the Tri-Cities.

Wednesday and Thursday...
Upper level flow will be rather zonal and the surface winds will
turn around back out of the south allowing for a gradual warmup.
After lower 70s for highs across most of southern Nebraska on 
Tuesday, we should be back into the upper 70s for most areas on 
Wednesday. This warm up will become more pronounced on Thursday 
with highs back into the mid and upper 80s.

Friday into next weekend...
The above normal temperatures will continue with southerly flow 
and highs generally in the upper 80s and lower 90s next weekend.
Friday will probably be the cooler of the days, but should still
be above normal in the 80s. Normal highs now in the Tri-cities are
only around 80 degrees. The forecast is currently dry, but we can
not completely rule out precipitation. The 00Z ECMWF does 
indicate the potential for precipitation Friday night while the 
00Z GFS brings an upper trough into the region late day Sunday 
that could result in precipitation. However, models vary enough 
that the NBM guidance is still dry for this period and will keep 
the forecast dry for now.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Tuesday)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

The primary concern will center around the morning dense fog that
is resulting in visibility to less than 1/4 mile and ceilings
around 200 ft agl. The fog is expected to gradually break up and
lift between 8 and 10 AM. The wind will remain light throughout
the period and will be rather variable through most of the day
before taking on a more predominate northerly or northeasterly
direction by late afternoon or early evening.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>086.

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005-006.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wesely
DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely