406 
FXUS64 KMAF 131105
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
605 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

VFR with light winds out of the S/SE and SKC at nearly all
terminals expected over the next 24 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

Ridging aloft will keep us slightly above normal this afternoon with 
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Despite Tropical Storm 
Nicolas moving up along the Texas coastline, drier air in our region 
will keep most of the moisture at bay. Still, dew points this 
evening will be around 5 degrees higher than Sunday night across the 
eastern CWA, pushing our temperatures overnight a few degrees warmer 
than Sunday. Lows tonight will be mostly in the mid 60s with 70s 
along the Lower Trans Pecos. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like 
we'll receive any precipitation from Nicholas as the storm moves off 
the east. Skies look to remain clear over the next 36 hours with 
some brief high clouds possible across the Lower Trans Pecos, 
courtesy of Nicholas.

By Tuesday, the flattened ridge axis will be over NM/AZ with our 
temperatures increasing by a few degrees. Highs will be mainly in 
the low to mid 90s for our region, but 100s will be possible along 
the Rio Grande. Winds will be light out of the S/SE with nil chance 
of any precipitation. Once again, hazy skies due to wildfires out 
west will make for some beautiful sunrises/sunsets.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

Low amplitude mid-level riding across the sw-w CONUS Tue evening 
will sustain weak nwly mid-level flow into Wed AM. Models suggest a 
weak shrtwv trof in the nw flow that may result dissipating showers 
across the nrn CWFA into early Wed AM. Similar indications of a 
minor shrtwv trof Wed PM with GFS indicating some convection Wed PM 
into early Thu AM across the nw-n CWFA. Signals are weak as is the 
flow and thus we will down play PoPs along with the NBM. Thur PM a 
few -SHRA/-TSRA can't be ruled across the higher elevations of the 
Trans Pecos. GFS is persistent if nothing else and again develops 
nocturnal convection into early Fri AM. NBM and ECMWF are dry and 
with such weak features we will again down play that potential. Fri 
PM-Sun PM W TX/SE NM look to be more under the influence of mid-
level ridging and w of the broad mid-level trof across cntrl/ern TX. 
The period generally looks to be one with high temps above normal 
and Fri-Mon may be the hottest days with indications of an anomalous 
and amplified low-level thermal ridge edging ewd along with dry air.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               90  66  90  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                 91  60  94  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                   92  68  94  69 /  10   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton            92  64  93  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass           82  62  86  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                    88  61  91  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                    86  55  89  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport     91  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                   91  65  92  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                     93  65  95  67 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...88