163 
FXUS63 KEAX 131053
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
553 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 230 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2021

Message of the Day:

- Storms will develop Tuesday afternoon/evening with a few strong to 
isolated severe storms possible. Hail and strong winds will be the 
main threats. In addition, heavy rainfall will be possible with 
these storms however, recent dry conditions should preclude any 
flooding.

Discussion:

The upper level ridge that has been the main catalyst for above 
normal temperatures recently will slide east today replaced by quasi-
zonal flow aloft. However, height falls will be minimal and smoke 
which has limited temperatures the past few days will be more 
diffuse. Couple that with continued modest WAA and temperatures will 
still rise into the upper 80s to near 90 today. A couple of 
shortwaves moving from the northern Plains into the Midwest...one 
tonight and another tomorrow morning will force a cold front toward 
the CWA. However, late Tuesday afternoon/evening another deeper 
shortwave will move through the northern Plains into the Upper 
Midwest finally pushing the front into the CWA. This front will be 
moving into an area of 1000-2000J/Kg of MUCAPE as well as 0-6KM 
shear of 45-55 knots. This many allow for a few strong storms and 
even perhaps an isolated severe storms capable of quarter sized hail 
and 60 mph winds although convergence along the front will be weak 
and the better upper level support will be north and east of the 
CWA. Instability should diminish quickly Tuesday evening so the 
window for strong to severe storms appears to be brief. In addition 
to the low-end severe threat, this storms will be capable of 
efficient rainfall with PWAT forecast to range in the 1.75"-2.00" 
range. Widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain will be possible south of 
Highway 36 however, recent dry conditions should preclude any 
flooding threat. Highs Tuesday will range from near 80 across the 
northwestern CWA (where the pass earlier in the day) to the upper 
80s across the southern CWA. Showers will continue into Wednesday 
morning as the cold front is expected to washout across the CWA and 
high pressure build into the area during the afternoon. Highs 
Wednesday will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Beyond Wednesday, dry conditions are expected with a warming trend. 
Surface high pressure will remain in control Thursday with highs in 
the low to mid 80s. Friday, high pressure slides east and WAA 
develops across the area with highs in the mid 80s. WAA will 
continue to strengthen through the weekend with highs in the upper 
80s to near 90 over the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2021

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with just ocnl few-sct high
clouds. Winds will be out of the south btn 7-12kts til 15Z-17Z
when they will increase to 10-15kts with gusts to 20-25kts. The
TAF sites may lose their gusts for an hour or two aft sunset
however they will be generally persistent thru the remainder of
the TAF pd at MKC and MCI.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73