406 
FXUS61 KCLE 130531
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
131 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will stall this evening near the southern 
shores of Lake Erie. This front will lift north as a warm front 
Monday into Tuesday ahead of another cold front expected to move 
east across the area on Wednesday. High pressure will build across 
the area behind the front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Strong to severe thunderstorms over Ontario, Canada continue to
move east-southeast. Bulk of activity should move into western
New York but southern flank will clip Erie County in
Pennsylvania. A quick severe thunderstorm watch has been issued
for Erie County to account for this activity. Expecting strong
damaging winds with this line; especially over the northeast
corner of the county. Otherwise, rest of the forecast across the
area remains unchanged.

Previous Discussion...

A slow moving cold was located just north of Lake Erie and
drifting southward tonight. This frontal boundary is expected to
stall out near the southern lakeshore of Lake Erie by late 
tonight or early Monday morning. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are expected to develop near this frontal boundary
but will remain north of our local area as this active weather 
will be moving from west to east tonight. We can't rule out an 
isolated pop up shower this evening but warm air aloft or the 
"cap" will keep most the area dry and quiet tonight. The only 
area that may get clipped with some showers and storms late 
tonight will be are extremely northeast area around Erie PA.

We will remain on the warm side of the front Monday with more
very warm temperatures and higher humidity. Afternoon highs will
climb back into the middle and upper 80s. The stalled front over
Lake Erie will lift back north as a warm front Monday into
Monday night. While we can't rule out a spotty shower pop near
the lakeshore, most the area will remain dry and quiet weather
on Monday and Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Much of the day on Tuesday should be fairly quiet with mid-level dry 
air in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. It will be a 
little gusty across the area by Tuesday afternoon, with winds in the 
25 to 30 mph range in some spots. The highest wind gusts are 
expected across NW OH. Temperatures will be above average with highs 
in the mid to upper 80s. 

By Tuesday night into Wednesday, the cold front will reach the north 
and northwest portions of the area, resulting in widespread showers 
and thunderstorms. As the upper trough continues to eject northeast 
across Quebec, the trailing cold front draped across the area will 
begin to slow, and eventually become nearly stationary. Expecting 
another round of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and 
evening hours, primarily across the central and eastern half of the 
area. Will still have to monitor instability trends for any severe 
weather threat, given the moderate deep layer shear profiles in 
place. At this point, the best chance for any decent destabilization 
would be across the far southeast portion of the area. 

We don't have a WPC ERO at this time, given Wednesday is day 4. 
However, anticipate we could at least be under a marginal risk by 
tonight's update, given favorable heavy rain profiles and cloud 
layer flow that is nearly parallel to the stalling front. Forecast 
QPF across the area on Wednesday is around an inch, with locally 
higher amounts possible. Temperatures will be a little cooler on 
Wednesday, in the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Uncertainty grows in the long term period with no agreement in any 
discernible upper air patterns and thus a lack of forcing for any 
shower and/or thunderstorms chances. We should maintain the warm and 
moist airmass through at least Friday as the aforementioned stalled 
cold front, lifts north as a warm front on Thursday. Will mainly 
keep isolated mention in the afternoon/evening on Thurs/Fri at this 
time. A weak cold front may move across the area on Saturday, with 
some model guidance hinting at cooler and more pleasant weather by 
the end of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Convection tracking over NW PA should be waning over the next
few hours, but underneath an inversion in this area, low stratus
in the MVFR range is expected to form overnight/early Monday
morning, and also over at TOL. Carry hints of the low stratus 
at CLE/CAK/YNG as well, but do not think the coverage will be 
enough for a ceiling and leave it at SCT. The frontal boundary 
responsible for the convection and the low stratus should lift 
back north as a warm front today. Otherwise, VFR with winds
generally under 12kts. Depending on how far south the front
drifts, winds along the lake shore terminals may need to go to a
NE direction with the winds after 16Z or so.
 
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers/thunderstorms through 
Tuesday. Non-VFR likely Wednesday in showers and thunderstorms 
associated with a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
A mostly quiet marine period is forecast through Thursday with no 
marine headlines anticipated. Southwest winds today, 10 to 15 knots, 
will shift more northerly tonight, then become northeastly by Monday 
as a cold front stalls just south of the lake. Winds will become 
southwesterly once again on Tuesday as the front lifts northeast as 
a warm front, 10 to 15 knots, becoming 15 to 20 knots by Tuesday 
night. Another cold front will stall south of the lake on Wednesday, 
with northerly flow of 5 to 10 knots expected. Light flow is then 
expected to continue into Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Kahn