064 
FXUS63 KEAX 130340
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1040 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 159 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2021

Message of the Day

- Quiet weather and above normal temperatures are expected today
  and tomorrow. 

- Showers and storms return Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
  morning. A storm or two could be strong to severe, with hail 
  and wind being the main concerns. Can't completely rule out some
  localized flooding as well with rain totals between 1-2 inches.

Discussion

Some shower activity has lingered in southeast NE today, but it's 
mostly clear skies here in our forecast area. We are still south of 
the cold front and in southwesterly flow, which will help 
temperatures max out in the upper 80s to near 90 later today. It is 
also a little breezy this afternoon, with winds gusting up to 25 
mph. Winds will decrease this evening as the sun goes down. Tomorrow 
will be very similar today; mostly clear skies, warm, and breezy. 
Fortunately, dew points have been behaving, so despite it being on 
the warmer side for this time of year, it hasn't felt oppressive. 

The cold front will remain in southern NE and IA until Tuesday when 
it finally starts sagging south into our area. This will bring us 
our best chance for rain this week. A shortwave trough will move 
over our area as the front moves south providing ample upper level 
support for storm development. Some storms could develop as early as 
the afternoon hours in northern MO, with more widespread convection 
developing along the front after sunset. Storms will move with the 
cold front through the area overnight, gradually exiting the area 
Wednesday morning. A storm or two could become strong to severe, 
especially as storms develop, with hail and strong winds being the
main concerns. Storms will be efficient, with PWATs between 1.5 
and 2 inches. So, can't completely rule out the possibility of 
some localized flooding, however, the lack of rain we've had over 
the past week does give us some cushion. A total of 1- 2 inches 
of rain is expected with this system.

High pressure will move in behind the front, keeping the rest of the 
week dry with temperatures in the 80s for highs and 60s for lows.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with only high
level clouds passing over. Wind gusts will diminish overnight and
then increase again late tomorrow morning, persisting through the
end of the forecast. Expect winds to gust in the 20 to 25 kt range
and then diminish at sunset tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Atkins
Aviation...CDB