202 
FXUS62 KILM 130132
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
932 PM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring sunny and dry weather, with a gradual 
warmup and building humidity in the upcoming week. Rain chances 
will return by Wednesday and may increase late week as tropical 
moisture moves into the Carolinas.

&&

.UPDATE...
No big changes necessary from the ongoing forecast with this
update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will control area weather during the period with 
fair weather expected. Lows tonight be in the low to mid 60s 
with mid to upper 60s expected Monday night. Highs Monday will 
reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Relatively low humidity will 
prevent it from feeling like early August Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure just offshore on Tuesday will allow for onshore 
to increase slightly. A dry air mass over the Carolinas will 
keep us dry for one more day. Humidity will increase across the 
area late Tuesday and Tuesday night with summerlike conditions 
returning. Highs on Tuesday afternoon in the lower 90s, lows 
overnight around 70. Mid-level ridge retreats to the NE on 
Wednesday as a broad, but low-amplitude trough approaches the 
area from the west. This will help to establish deep WSW flow 
and increasing moisture throughout the column (this may also 
help us tap into moisture from Nicholas over east TX or LA as it
becomes absorbed in the overall flow). Warm and humid with 
highs around 90, overnight lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tropical moisture will hang around for the latter half of next 
week. The mostly zonal flow in the mid-levels and additional 
moisture will maintain scattered showers each afternoon. A 
tropical wave north of the Bahamas has the potential to develop 
into a tropical low by late next week. NHC has discussed that 
the environmental shear in the area will be difficult for the 
system to overcome, but a depression could develop despite this.
All indications at the moment are that if the system develops, 
the main threat (if the system approaches close enough to affect
the area) would be heavy rainfall. This is low confidence at 
the moment. Will keep a chance of afternoon convection and above
normal temperatures in the forecast as mid- level flow 
maintains a southerly component behind the disturbance.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and mainly VFR through the 00Z TAF period. There could be 
some MVFR fog toward morning, however confidence is rather low 
and only included mention at KFLO. Continued southerly flow on 
Monday with sfc high pressure centered offshore.

Extended Outlook... Mainly VFR continues with patchy MVFR from 
early morning ground fog and/or low stratus during each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday Night... Expect light winds through much of the 
period with some varying in direction due to a weak pressure 
gradient and small scale processes like the sea breeze. By 
Monday night though a southerly wind will become established. 
Seas will run about 2 feet through the period.

Tuesday through Friday... Surface high pressure will continue 
to produce a weak gradient and seas 1-2 feet on Tuesday. On 
Tuesday night into Wednesday, high pressure will slide offshore 
and a SE wind will develop around 10-15 knots. Seas build to 3-4
feet with the easterly return flow. On Wednesday night into 
Thursday, the gradient will increase in response to a developing
area of low pressure offshore. NHC has indicated that this area
of showers and storms may develop into a tropical depression 
later in the week, but environmental shear should keep any 
development muted. While there is no immediate threat to the 
coastal waters, mariners should follow the development over the 
next several days.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...MAS/43
MARINE...21/31