685 
FXUS64 KMAF 080519
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1219 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021

VFR conditions should continue for the next 24 hours. Light winds
from the southeast becoming northeasterly behind a cold front by 
early morning and more easterly tomorrow afternoon. Scattered 
cumulus will likely develop during the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

Unseasonably warm temperatures have returned today, with highs this 
afternoon on target to reach the middle and upper 90s for most, with 
upper 80s in the mountains, and lower 100s through portions of the 
Rio Grande Valley. While a widespread cumulus field is expected to 
develop once again this afternoon, most locations will remain dry, 
with storms expected to be focused mainly over the favored higher 
terrain and locations south of I-10. A few isolated storms may also 
be possible across the southeastern Permian Basin this afternoon 
associated with a shortwave trough currently rounding the eastern 
periphery of the ridge anchored west of the region. This shortwave 
generated showers and thunderstorms this morning across the Red 
River Valley, Big Country, and Western Low Rolling Plains, so 
additional development over the next few hours cannot be ruled out. 
However, severe weather is not expected today, with locally heavy 
rain, gusty winds, and lightning the main concern with storms that 
develop. Convection will also largely be diurnally driven, thus, 
storms should diminish fairly quickly after sunset this evening. 
Lows tonight are expected to be similar to the last few nights, in 
the 60s and lower 70s for most, with some upper 50s possible across 
the higher terrain.

The upper pattern will become increasingly amplified Wednesday as a 
deepening trough over the Great Lakes region sends a weak cold front 
south across the Plains and across Southeast New Mexico and West 
Texas early in the day on Wednesday. The front is progged to reach 
the I-20 corridor by late morning, slowly progressing south during 
the afternoon. Temperatures behind the front may only be a degree or 
two cooler than today, though convergence along this boundary will 
act as a focus for convection Wednesday afternoon, with isolated to 
widely scattered storms possible generally along and south of I-20. 
Storms that develop on Wednesday are not expected to be severe and 
should weaken quickly after sunset, though a few storms may linger 
into the evening across the Stockton Plateau. A quiet night is then 
expected Wednesday night, with lows similar to those tonight, 
ranging from the upper 50s across the mountains to 60s and lower 70s 
across the plains. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through  Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

An anomalously strong 596 dam high over the 4 Corners region will
shift ewd thru the latter half of this week. As it does so, mid 
lvl hghts/thicknesses will increase over West TX and Southeast 
New Mexico. Highs on Thursday will be 3-5 degrees above normal 
region-wide and increase furthermore Friday and Saturday. Some 
locations along the river valleys and low rolling plains are 
forecasted to reach the triple digits both days. The pattern will 
begin to shift on Sunday as the upper lvl ridge ridge is flattened
out by a longwave trof moving into the Central Plains. This trof 
will serve to reduce hghts aloft and cool temperatures steadily 
into early next week. The upper lvl setup next week will favor 
ridging to the west and troffing to the east of our region. This 
pattern will unfortunately keep any passing shrtwv trofs too far 
N and E of the forecast area and dry weather looks to persist 
through the middle of next week.

-Salerno

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               93  67  96  68 /  10   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                 94  67  95  65 /  10   0   0   0 
Dryden                   98  72  98  70 /  10  10   0   0 
Fort Stockton            93  68  95  68 /  10  10   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass           85  66  86  66 /  10   0   0   0 
Hobbs                    91  64  94  64 /  10   0   0   0 
Marfa                    87  57  88  54 /  10   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport     94  67  96  68 /  10   0   0   0 
Odessa                   94  67  95  69 /  10   0   0   0 
Wink                     96  69  98  66 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...91