National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDABQ
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDABQ
Product Timestamp: 2021-09-06 21:00 UTC
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311 FXUS65 KABQ 062100 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A few showers and storms will linger this evening over the east and south. Showers and storms will be scarce for much of this week due to a strong dome of high pressure over the region. Near record heat will develop for many locales Tuesday and persist until the weekend. Low temperatures will be cool with clear skies and light winds. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate the region through Tuesday night. Drier air aloft will continue to rotate around the high and into NM limiting convection. Agitated cumulus evident on satellite imagery will struggle through the afternoon, but a few storms remain possible across northeast NM as well as the southwest and south central mountains. Any storms that develop would shift southward around 5 to 10 mph. Some models suggest that storms across the northeast could linger into east central NM through the evening hours, but confidence is low. Gusty winds will be possible with any storm. Excellent radiational cooling across the northwest third of the area will allow for a chilly night once again around Angel Fire, Gallup and Grants. Even fewer storms are expected on Tuesday and temperatures will soar to within a few degrees of records for many locations, despite a weak back door front. Quiet conditions expected Tuesday night, though a brief breezy east canyon wind in the Rio Grande Valley cannot be ruled out Tuesday evening. 34 LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... Some near record highs are possible on Wednesday especially over the western and northern mountains. The east will be a few degrees cooler compared to Tuesday's highs due to the frontal boundary impacting the area Tuesday night. The NAM12 has backed off on generating any precipitation associated with this boundary on Wednesday, although it does suggest isolated showers or storms over the north central and southwest peaks. 12Z MEXABQ predicts a high of 95 both Thursday and Friday at the Albuquerque Sunport which would be close to the latest occurrence of 95 or above which was recorded on Sept 14 1956 when a high of 95 was measured. The record high at the Sunport for both days is also 95. Other guidance isn't quite that warm but is still within a degree or two. The upper high strengthens over north central New Mexico Thursday then weakens slightly Friday. High temperatures remain at least 5 to 10 degrees warmer than average. Models start to differ Saturday and through early next week. The upper high may regroup over the Great Basin allowing for a couple of fronts and showers and storms to develop over the northern and western mountains. Or it will linger over the state but weaken a bit, allowing highs to cool a degree or two but keeping the weather dry. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot, dry and unstable conditions will be the rule for much of the week as strong high pressure over the Great Basin gradually shifts over NM through Friday. Fortunately, winds will be light, thus no critical fire weather concerns. Humidities will generally trend downward, with single digit humidity values possible across northern New Mexico Tuesday, Thursday and Friday afternoons. High temperatures will be a few to several degrees above normal. Some uncertainty remains for next weekend, but looks fairly dry for now. 34 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 53 94 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 44 91 48 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 51 87 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 43 91 49 91 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 45 85 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 43 88 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 49 86 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 55 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 49 83 53 82 / 5 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 51 91 54 89 / 10 5 5 0 Glenwood........................ 59 92 60 91 / 10 5 5 0 Chama........................... 45 85 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 60 85 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 56 85 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 82 44 83 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 42 75 43 75 / 0 0 0 10 Angel Fire...................... 34 79 36 77 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 46 88 48 86 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 52 81 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 54 92 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 57 88 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 55 91 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 62 91 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 93 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 60 94 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 61 94 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 58 94 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 59 94 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 58 93 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 60 95 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 58 93 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 59 93 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 60 93 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 61 94 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 87 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 57 90 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 53 89 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 48 89 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 54 85 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 55 87 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 56 86 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 61 89 60 86 / 5 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 55 82 54 77 / 5 20 0 0 Capulin......................... 55 85 50 83 / 5 0 0 0 Raton........................... 52 90 50 87 / 5 0 0 0 Springer........................ 53 91 51 87 / 10 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 52 86 50 82 / 5 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 61 92 56 86 / 10 0 0 0 Roy............................. 58 90 55 82 / 10 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 62 95 60 89 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 60 90 59 86 / 5 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 64 96 61 90 / 10 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 62 91 61 86 / 10 0 5 0 Portales........................ 64 92 62 87 / 10 0 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 64 93 63 88 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 65 95 66 92 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 61 87 61 84 / 5 5 0 0 Elk............................. 57 82 57 80 / 5 10 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$