181 
FXUS63 KABR 062020
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
320 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

A frontal boundary that was situated from northeastern North Dakota 
to west central South Dakota at 18Z will track eastward across the 
CWA late this afternoon and this evening, reaching western Minnesota 
around or shortly after midnight. Will see a bit more moisture get 
pulled up over the eastern CWA late this afternoon, resulting in 
some CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. As the front approaches that 
region this evening, may see a few showers or thunderstorms develop 
along and east of the Coteau, but do not anticipate any severe 
weather. Winds will shift to the northwest and become breezy behind 
the exiting front, with the breezy winds continuing through the day 
Tuesday. The northwest flow will also bring in cooler air, with a 
return to near normal temperatures. High pressure settles in Tuesday 
night. 

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s, with high temperatures 
generally in the 70s on Tuesday. Lows Tuesday night will be in the 
upper 40s to lower 50s.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

The upper level large scale pattern will feature northwest flow over 
the northern plains as high pressure remains over the SW CONUS and 
low pressure spins over the eastern Canada/Hudson Bay region through 
the workweek. Models do hint at a jet max/shortwave tracking over 
the region in the Thursday timeframe, but dry air in the mid and low 
levels will likely hinder precip development. Signs of a pattern 
change become evident by the weekend and into next week. Some models 
show varying depictions of a wave of energy in the Friday/Saturday 
time frame. Then by late in the weekend/early next week, the SW 
CONUS high appears to break down and the predominate pattern becomes 
more zonal or at least a low amplitude northwest flow. 500 MB 
cluster maps do hint at the GFS being a bit faster as compared to 
the European counterparts in making the pattern change. Either way, 
this should open up the opportunity for precipitation chances to 
return to the forecast through the weekend and into early next week. 
Overall temperatures are expected to remain near to just on the warm 
side of normal through the long term period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the TAF
period. A frontal boundary will track from west to east across the
area this afternoon and evening, with winds shifting to the
northwest and increasing into the 15 to 25 knot range behind it.
The gusty winds will continue into the morning hours on Tuesday.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for SDZ003-015.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Serr
AVIATION...Parkin