871 
FXUS63 KMKX 061938 CCA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
238 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 238 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021)

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Mostly clear skies will continue overnight as high pressure
departs ahead of an approaching low. Light winds will pick up a 
bit later in the night as the pressure gradient tightens up 
between the high and low. Temps will likely bottom out for the 
night shortly after midnight, holding steady or gradually 
climbing later in the night with increasing winds and warm air 
advection. 

The cold front will move through during the morning hours
tomorrow, exiting the southeast early in the afternoon. There will
be a narrow ribbon of higher precipitable water values ahead of
the front, with increasing instability as it warms up tomorrow.
Mid level lapse rates look solid tomorrow to go along with a good
amount of deep layer shear. Any storms that get going by early
afternoon in the forecast area will have the potential for some
strong wind gusts and maybe even some hail. The question remains
if there will be enough time for storm development before the
front exits to the east. Kept the highest precip chances in the
east, mainly for the late morning and afternoon hours. Showers and
storms should exit to the east by late afternoon as the front
clears the area. 

Should be a decent spread in high temps tomorrow, as it may warm
into the mid or even briefly upper 80s southeast ahead of the
front by early to mid afternoon. Highs in the northwest will 
likely top in the upper 70s with the front through much earlier 
along with more clouds through the day. 

Southwest winds will be breezy tomorrow ahead of the front, with
breezy west to northwest winds developing behind it later in the
day. 

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 238 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021)

Wednesday through Monday:

Breezy northwest winds will continue Wednesday. A weak wave
embedded in the northwest flow may bring a couple showers to the
area in the afternoon and evening, with the best chance in the
northeast forecast area. Temps tomorrow behind the departing
system will be a few degrees below normal, but still comfortably
in the 70s. 

It should be dry Thursday and Friday along with a good amount of
sunshine as surface high pressure moves through the region. Temps
are likely to warm back to around normal by the end of the work 
week.

The flow will be largely zonal for Sat-Mon, with a pair of waves
possibly bringing showers to southern Wisconsin Sat and again
Monday. Temps look near to a few degrees above normal through this
period. 

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 238 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021)

Southerly winds will pick up tonight into Tuesday ahead of an 
approaching low pressure system and associated cold front. Could 
see gusts as high as 30 knots later Tue morning into early 
afternoon, though there remains some uncertainty with the strength
of the winds. Winds will pick up aloft later tonight and low level
wind shear could creep up, though winds will be picking up at the
surface by the time the stronger winds aloft move through.
So...held off on mention of LLWS in the TAFs for now. 

There will be a chance for storms as the front moves through late
morning into early afternoon, particularly in the north and east.
West to northwest winds will be breezy behind the front later 
Tuesday into Tuesday night. 

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 238 PM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021)

Southerly winds will pick up tonight into Tuesday ahead of 
approaching low pressure, which will pass by just to the north of
Lake Superior tomorrow. Southwest winds could then reach gale 
force ahead of the associated cold front tomorrow, though there 
remains uncertainty with the strength of the winds. Kept the Gale
Watch going in the south due to the uncertainty and also expanded
the watch to the north for the morning hours. West to northwest 
winds will also be on the higher side behind the front Tuesday 
evening and night. Winds could approach gale force in the north 
for this period. Breezy northwest winds will linger into 
Wednesday.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Watch...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
     LMZ868...7 AM Tuesday to 1 PM Tuesday.

     Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-
     LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878...7 AM Tuesday to 6 PM Tuesday.

&&

$$

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