300 
FXUS63 KGLD 061709
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1109 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through 12Z Thursday) 
Issued at 228 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021

The main forecast concerns for the near-term are hot and dry 
conditions and the possibility of elevated to near critical fire 
weather conditions.  High pressure dominates over the southwestern 
CONUS through the forecast period with northwest flow aloft over the 
Tri-State area.  An upper trough embedded in the northwest flow will 
move across the area.  Brought high temperatures up a couple of 
degrees as models have been trending slightly upward the last couple 
of runs. Expect highs to be in the 90s. Lows will range from the 
mid-50s in Eastern Colorado to the low 60s. 

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon along 
and west of a line extending from McCook to Colby to Tribune. 
Relative humidity is expected to be in the mid-teens in these areas 
with wind gusts being a limiting factor, reaching around 15kts. 
There is a narrow corridor where near critical fire weather 
conditions will be present this afternoon. This area includes 
Wallace County and locations primarily west of Highway 83 that fall 
along and north of I-70. Relative humidity values in this area 
will fall into the low to mid-teens during the afternoon.

A cold front slips south into the Tri-State area Tuesday, bringing 
temperatures down slightly.  Expected highs will be in the 80s. 
Winds become northerly as the front passes through, increasing to 
around 15-25mph with gusts to 35mph.  Minimum RH values will be in 
the 20s in the afternoon and are not expected to coincide with the 
strongest winds, so have made no mention of fire weather concerns. 
Despite the higher RH values, drying conditions on Monday and gusty 
winds as the front moves through will help to dry out fuels and 
could potentially aide in the spread of any fires that pop up.  Will 
continue to monitor conditions over the next several model runs.

Little change to the "hot and dry" forecast for Wednesday. 
Temperatures will be up a few degrees from Tuesday, ranging mainly 
in the mid to upper 80s.  

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) 
Issued at 240 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021

Strong H5 ridge will remain primary synoptic feature through the 
period with a trend to more zonal flow aloft towards the end of the 
period. This will generally lead to hot and dry conditions with some 
small chances for thunderstorms late in the period.  Medium range 
models have moved into a bit better agreement with ridge becoming 
more amplified across the rockies and then a series of short wave 
troughs/weak cold frontal passages flattening the ridge over the 
Central Plains.

Initial thoughts were to push max temperatures to the warmer end of 
the distribution, but given CWA will be on periphery of ridge axis 
initially, transient lower predictability nature of the short wave 
troughs and raw models indicating a somewhat strong warm bias at 
this range think sticking to near the center of the distribution is 
warranted.  For any potential weather hazards during the period, the 
most likely will be potential for extreme fire danger as airmass 
will remain fairly dry, especially after first potential frontal 
passage on Friday. Still some concern for potential blowing dust 
given the prolonged period of hot, dry and sunny weather and any 
potential strong cold front. At this time, data has really backed 
off the strength of any of the potential cold fronts this weekend 
which should significantly lower this risk should the pattern hold.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Mon Sep 6 2021

VFR conditions are expected for the majority of the forecast 
period for both KGLD and KMCK. Southerly winds will persist 
throughout the day before changing to northwesterly before a cold 
front moves through from the north around 12Z for KMCK and 14Z for
KGLD. Along and just behind the front winds may gust up to 30-35 
knots through the end of the 18Z TAF period. Northwesterly flow 
also brings in the potential for haze through the TAF period with 
a reduction in visibility possible around sunrise for both KMCK 
and KGLD around 11Z Tuesday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AW
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...TT