034 
FXUS63 KBIS 061529
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1029 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

The forecast for today remains on track. 

Red Flag conditions will materialize early to mid afternoon as 
winds ramp up and as we mix out resulting in percent RH values to 
fall into the teens. Counties bordering the RFW area will see 
critical fire weather criteria for an hour or two, but not as long
of a duration as western areas are expected to see. Thus will 
stick with the RFW area as is. 


UPDATE Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

Temperatures at most locations have now fallen into the 50s with 
a few remaining in the low 60s. Temperatures should drop a few 
more degrees yet with some locations potentially reaching the 
upper 40s, though most will remain in the 50s. Otherwise, most 
sites are presently experiencing calm winds before they will pick 
up later this morning and into the early afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

The main concern for the near-term forecast is in regards to fire
weather as a cold frontal boundary drops through the state today.
This frontal boundary will produce sustained winds as high as 20 
to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Minimum relative humidity 
values are also expected to drop to 15 to 25 percent, with the 
lowest values in far southwestern North Dakota. Thus, a Red Flag 
Warnings remains in effect for much of south central and western 
North Dakota. The main change for this morning's update was the 
addition of Divide County into the Red Flag Warning. Near critical
fire weather conditions are also expected for counties north of 
Lake Sakakawea that are not presently in the warning.

Otherwise, the frontal passage will help generate a few isolated 
showers and thunderstorms in the northern forecast area this 
afternoon and into the evening hours. Severe weather is not 
expected at this time. Highs today will be rather warm from the 
low 80s north to the low 90s south. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

For the most part, the extended period looks pretty benign with a
familiar pattern of an east CONUS trough and west CONUS ridge in
place through at least Thursday. This will leave the region in
northwest flow with mostly dry conditions in place. Models are
starting to come into agreement with the idea of a shortwave
glancing through the region Friday. However, at this point, looks
pretty limited in any precipitation coverage for the forecast area
by maintaining the best energy further north. Additional shortwave
energy is possible later in the weekend, although models become
quite diffuse by this point in time. Seasonable temperatures are
on tap for the most part with highs generally in the 70s and low
80s, although Thursday looks a bit warmer, especially further
west.

One thing of mention for the extended is that near critical fire
weather conditions are expected for portions of western North 
Dakota. Essentially, the western and southwestern portions of the 
state will see minimum relative humidities drop back down into the
20 to 25 percent range. However, unlike today, the breeziest wind
conditions look to remain mostly north of Lake Sakakawea and east
river.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected through the TAF period.
The biggest concern is winds which begin picking up in the morning
further west and in the afternoon further east. Gusts of up to 30
to 35 kts out of a westerly to northwesterly direction are 
possible at the western TAF sites. Winds will begin to diminish in
the late afternoon and early evening hours. An isolated
thunderstorm is also possible at the northern TAF sites during
Monday afternoon. Due to the isolated nature of any thunderstorms,
confidence in any particular location at any particular time 
seeing a thunderstorm is low.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for 
NDZ001-009-017>020-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...Telken
LONG TERM...Telken
AVIATION...Telken