641 
FXUS64 KLCH 061142
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
642 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021


.AVIATION...

Messy/wet weather pattern unfolding across the region this morning
as a very moist airmass interacts with an approaching frontal
boundary. Showers and thunderstorms will be slow moving at times,
but will generally progress in a southeast to southward motion
through the day. Main concerns will be periods of reduced VIS and
low ceilings as these storms progress south, with frequent cloud
to ground lightning possible as well. There is also the potential
for some flooding within these slower moving storms today, 
especially at AEX/LFT/ARA. Convection will begin to taper off 
north to south later this afternoon into the early part of the 
overnight hours. A few showers will likely linger along and south 
of the I-10 corridor overnight, however, mainly dry and VFR 
conditions are expected.


17


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM [Today through Wed Night]...

Looking at surface obs this morning, the approaching cold front 
has moved across Central LA and is nearing the HWY 190 corridor at
this time. Radar shows scattered showers and a couple 
thunderstorms moving south across the region in association with 
this front, while skies are partly cloudy elsewhere. The front 
will continue to push south through the CWA today, eventually 
stalling near the coast later today or tonight. With PWATs near 
2.0 inches this morning, expect convection to gradually become 
more widespread through the next few hours. Guidance is in 
relatively good agreement with scattered to widespread convection 
firing up across inland areas through the morning hours, before 
spreading south into the coastal waters by the afternoon. Not 
expecting any severe weather today, but some slow moving storms 
could pose a threat for localized flash flooding.

The flash flood threat may become a bit greater through the next 
couple of days, as the boundary looks to hang around near the 
coast through early Wednesday. With the front continuing to 
provide a focus for convection through the mid-week, expect 
several more rounds of scattered to widespread showers and 
thunderstorms, especially along and south of the I-10 corridor. 
Guidance is particularly wet for parts of Acadiana, where the risk
for flash flooding may be greatest, especially across areas that 
see sustained and persistent rainfall. As the front becomes
increasingly washed out on Wednesday, expect a slight decrease in
rain chances. The typical chance of isolated to scattered 
afternoon showers still remains, but coverage should be less than 
today and tomorrow. 

17 

LONG TERM [Thursday through Sunday]...

A southward digging longwave trough over the Central and Eastern 
U.S. expected for Thursday and Friday, which should allow for a cool 
front to move through the area early Thursday. The front will likely 
trigger some showers and thunderstorms along the passage, mainly 
along and south of the I-10 corridor. Behind the front, 
precipitation chances expected to end with drier air across the 
region. This will limit precipitation chances to the coastal waters, 
and allow for slightly cooler mornings in the mid 60s for Central 
Louisiana/Inland Southeast Texas to near 70 along the coastal 
parishes/counties for Thursday through the weekend. Due to the drier 
air, highs will still reach the lower 90s, with mid 90s possible 
across Inland Southeast Texas. The slightly lower humidities should 
make it more tolerable. Expect a gradual humidifying trend as return 
flow resumes by Sunday afternoon.

DML

MARINE...

Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread later today
as a frontal boundary move southward towards the coast. This 
front will stall across the region through the mid-week, keeping a
daily chance for showers and thunderstorms in place. Winds will 
alternate between offshore and onshore through the first half of 
the week depending on the exact location of the boundary, while 
seas will run in the 1-2 foot range with isolated higher swells 
near thunderstorms.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  67  92  69 /  40   0  20  10 
LCH  90  71  91  72 /  80  20  30  20 
LFT  90  72  90  72 /  80  20  50  20 
BPT  90  71  92  70 /  70  20  20  10 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$