882 
FXUS64 KMAF 061129
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

MVFR conditions are possible at KHOB this morning. A cloud deck 
continues to move into the Permian Basin, but terminals should 
remain VFR. TSRA is possible later this afternoon but confidence 
to low to include in this TAF cycle. Winds are going to remain 
light and out of the north to northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

The cold front that initiated storms over Southeast New Mexico 
and the Permian Basin yesterday afternoon, has dropped south into
the Trans-Pecos. Therefore, increased cloud cover and near normal 
temperatures are expected. High temperatures are forecasted to 
stay in the low 90s for the plains, upper 80s for the mountains, 
and 100s along the Rio Grande. Storms are possible this afternoon 
across much of the region with the highest PoPs centered south of 
I-10. Thunderstorms will initiate off the front, but thunderstorms
are possible behind the front across the Permian Basin. Hi-Res 
models are highlighting a few storms over the southeastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos by the late afternoon as instablilty 
increases. Low temperatures are going to remain cool, as they are 
forecasted to sit in 60s across much of the region. Tuesday, 
temperatures are forecasted to warm back above normal due to a 
thermal ridge building over the region. Thunderstorms are possible
over the Davis and Glass Mountains as a result of daytime heating
and orographic ascent. However, subsidence should hinder precip 
across Southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

By the middle of the week, the weather pattern becomes persistent. 
The upper level high located over the Great Basin will continue to
build with our area remaining on the eastern periphery. This will
keep us dry and warm. High temperatures will remain above average
with mid 90s over much of the region. By the end of the week, the
upper level high becomes centered over the Four Corners area. 
This causes warmer 850 mb temperatures to overspread the region 
and should allow for our warmest days. Much of the area will be in
the upper 90s to near 100 by Friday and Saturday. We should cool 
a few degrees by Sunday as 850 mb temperatures cool slightly in 
response to lowering heights as the upper level high slides east 
across Oklahoma into Arkansas. Temperatures may cool a few more 
degrees again on Monday as the upper level high continues to move 
to our east and heights continue to lower. No rainfall can be 
expected in the forecast as subsidence under high pressure and 
decreasing afternoon dewpoints will prevent any convection from 
developing. Beyond the extended, forecast models are trying to 
bring in a more active weather pattern. Hopefully there is some 
truth to this model guidance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               91  69  94  68 /  10  10   0   0 
Carlsbad                 91  66  94  67 /  10   0   0  10 
Dryden                   97  72  97  72 /  20  20  10  10 
Fort Stockton            92  69  94  68 /  20  10  10   0 
Guadalupe Pass           81  65  84  65 /  10   0  10   0 
Hobbs                    88  65  92  65 /  10  10   0  10 
Marfa                    86  59  87  59 /  20  10  20  10 
Midland Intl Airport     91  69  94  68 /  10  10   0   0 
Odessa                   92  69  94  69 /  10  10   0   0 
Wink                     92  69  96  69 /  10  10   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...89