377 
FXUS64 KTSA 061119
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
619 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected for all sites the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 243 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure will settle over the area today bringing us
sunny skies, light southerly to southeasterly wind, and warm 
weather. Despite temperatures rising into the low to mid 90s, dew 
points will largely remain in check thus heat indices will 
struggle to reach into the mid 90s. This is a much welcome change 
compared to the past few weeks. Mid level heights will continue to
rise into tomorrow leading to continued fair weather with 
temperatures soaring into the upper 90s for some across NE OK. 

A cold front approaches the area Tuesday night into Wednesday 
morning. The GFS has continued to paint precipitation across parts
of the area, as it has the past few days. The latest Canadian, 
NAM Nest, and approximately 70% of the GEFS ensembles now suggest 
showers and thunderstorms along the cold front Tuesday night into 
early Wednesday morning. As a result, opted to go above the NIL 
NBM forecast and include slight chance PoPs for thunderstorms 
during this time frame. The system appears to be very progressive 
overall thus rainfall amounts will remain limited with no severe 
weather threat to speak of. This will likely be the last chance 
for precipitation for awhile. The cold front will bring much 
cooler weather (and drier weather AKA keeping dew points in the 
50s to lower 60s) as well for Wednesday with morning lows Thursday
morning dipping into the mid 50s across parts of NE OK and NW AR.
However, this cooler weather will be short lived.

Thursday through early next week will see a mid level ridge 
migrate from the four corners region through our area, before 
settling just our east in the southeast US. This ridge will bring 
us much warmer than normal temperatures with mid to upper 90s 
expected for most from Friday through at least next Monday. The 
one thing noteworthy about this upcoming heat wave will be the 
lack of humidity. Dew points largely in the 50s to lower 60s will 
help to keep heat indices in check with heat indices likely a tad 
lower than the actual air temperature. Dew points may start to 
creep up next week when flow from the Gulf moves into the area. 

Snider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   94  68  97  67 /   0   0  20  20 
FSM   91  65  94  69 /   0   0   0  20 
MLC   91  64  92  67 /   0   0   0  20 
BVO   93  63  96  62 /   0   0  20  20 
FYV   89  58  90  62 /   0   0   0  20 
BYV   88  61  91  64 /   0   0   0  20 
MKO   90  63  92  66 /   0   0  10  20 
MIO   90  65  92  63 /   0   0  20  20 
F10   92  65  94  66 /   0   0  10  20 
HHW   89  63  90  67 /   0   0   0  20 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....18