172 
FXUS63 KFSD 061108
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
608 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS: 

1. Warm and breezy Labor Day is expected in the region.
2. Cold front brings windy conditions for Tuesday.
3. Continued quiet weather through the rest of the week.
4. Next reasonable chance for rain may be a week away. 

THIS MORNING: Cirrus continues to spill into the northern US early 
this morning.  Light winds have allowed temperatures in some of the 
valley regions to dip into the 40s, but as surface winds begin to 
increase from the south through daybreak, temperatures may begin to 
rise. 

TODAY:  Temperatures on Monday will be the warmest for Labor Day 
over the last 9 years, but still should remain well shy of the 
warmest temperatures on record. Cirrus this morning will slide to 
the east, but some smoke aloft may begin to filter overhead by 
mid-afternoon. This smoke coverage may be the highest over the 
west river areas and could minimally impact temperatures. Mixing 
will be most pronounced west of the James River this afternoon, 
which should push highs well into the 90s. Mixing won't be as deep
further east, which will hold temperatures into the middle to 
upper 80s. The higher elevations of the Coteau des Prairies may 
see a marginal boost in highs as well given the southwesterly 
winds. Breezy southwest winds will push dew points into the 40s 
and lower 50s in central SD, but recent rains should limit fire 
danger risks. 

TONIGHT: Strong frontal boundary still on track to move across the 
area after midnight and exit the CWA by daybreak Tuesday.  Moisture 
again looks limited with this front, but could see a scattered to 
broken mid-lvl cloud field move through.  Winds immediately after 
the frontal passage will not be overly gusty, but should increase 
quickly by daybreak as the strong cold advection aloft arrives. With 
a persistent mixy wind ahead of the boundary, will keep temperatures 
a bit warmer overnight. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

TUESDAY:  A cooler and windy day is anticipated on Tuesday, with 
highs settling back into the 70s in most areas. Wind gusts will 
likely push 30 mph at times from the middle of the day through 
early evening. 

WEDNESDAY: High pressure will slide through the central Dakotas on 
Wednesday, keeping the eastern half along a stronger surface 
pressure gradient.  Would anticipate fairly breezy conditions 
through the afternoon hours, with temperatures in the 70s. 

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:  The forecast for the end of the week will continue 
to be a quiet one. A subtle PV anomaly may move through the 
Northern US Thursday, bringing a bit of cloud cover to the region,
but shouldn't produce much in the way of rain. Temperatures 
slowly begin to warm back above normal, reaching the lower to 
middle 80s on Friday. 

NEXT WEEKEND: Much of the upcoming weekend will remain dry, as 
return flow struggles to become established.  A subtle mid-lvl 
shortwave may drop through the region later on Saturday, but with 
all of the moisture confined to the mid-lvls, precipitation would be 
very light if it does form.  Another very nice day is anticipated 
for Sunday, though afternoon breezes may be common.  Highs both days 
remain either side of the normal values for this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Mon Sep 6 2021

VFR conditions will persist through the daytime hours of Monday.
Winds will turn southerly and may gust a bit in the afternoon.
Cirrus will be replaced with a smoke layer aloft by the afternoon. 

A frontal boundary will move through into Tuesday morning.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...Dux