579 
FXUS63 KBIS 060238
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
938 PM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

Previous discussions remain on track. No changes needed with this
update. 

UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

A few high level clouds move through the area this evening, with
otherwise quiet weather. With a light but southerly breeze
tonight, lows won't be as cold, generally in the 50s. No changes
needed with this update. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

Main forecast issue is fire weather concerns for Monday afternoon
into evening for much of western and south central North Dakota. 
Upgraded the counties that were in the Fire Weather Watch to a Red
Flag Warning and also added Mercer, Oliver, Morton, Grant and 
Sioux.

A cold front will push across the state mainly during the
afternoon hours with winds shifting to the west/northwest and
strengthening to over 20 mph sustained with stronger gusts. 
Forecast soundings show deep mixing to around 600 mb. Expect 
lowest humidities across southwest and south central parts of the
state, around 15 percent. Min RH will be slightly higher north, 
in the 15-25 percent range, but winds appear to be slightly 
stronger. Recent rains closer to the Missouri River region have 
resulted in greener vegetation, but with the combination of longer
term drought, dead fuels, and the expected wind strength, wind 
shift with the front and low RH, decided to add those counties to 
the Red Flag Warning. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

Breezy conditions are expected over most of the region on Tuesday,
resulting in near critical fire weather conditions across the
southwest. However, minimum humidities are expected to be slightly
higher southwest, in the 20-25 percent range with stronger winds 
displaced eastward where humidity is expected to be higher. 

Otherwise, much of the long term period will be categorized by a 
strong upper level high centered over the Great Basin and a cut- 
off low generally north of the Great Lakes. This places the 
Northern Plains in northwest flow for much of the week. This 
pattern looks to keep mainly dry conditions across our region, 
with some model differences developing later in the week with a 
more pronounced shortwave trough moving through the flow around 
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Sep 5 2021

VFR conditions expected through the 00Z forecast period. Main
aviation concern will be winds on Monday, with northwest winds
increasing around 18Z. Highest wind gusts will be in the west with
wind gusts up to 35 kts possible. KXWA may see 40 kt gusts at 
some point in the afternoon. Further east winds will be gusty but
not quite as strong. A few isolated showers possible in the north
central from 21Z to 00Z, but confidence is low in any TAF site
impact at this moment. 


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM 
MDT/ Monday for NDZ009-017>020-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AE
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...AE