704 
FXUS64 KAMA 271706
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1206 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the 18Z TAF period. However, there
is a very small chance that some thunderstorms in eastern New
Mexico, SE Colorado that could potentially impact KDHT KGUY
between 23Z today and 05Z Saturday. Confidence is this even
happening is so low, have left out of the TAFs for now. Winds will
be southwest to southerly up to 15kts with maybe gust up to 25 kts
through the period. 

36

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 548 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021/ 

AVIATION...

For the 12Z TAFs:

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals throughout the valid
TAF period with one caveat regarding thunderstorm potential. 
There is a low chance (<20%) for thunderstorms to occur and impact
KDHT and KGUY, but confidence was higher to keep this mention out
of this cycle. If the trough axis can push farther east, the 
likelihood may increase for thunderstorms and may need to be 
added in subsequent TAFs. Wind speeds will range from 15-20 knots 
with gusts closer to 30 knots from the south/southwest. 

Guerrero

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 336 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021/ 

SHORT TERM (Today through tomorrow night)...

Overview:
Very similar story today as compared to yesterday with breezy
south/southwesterly wind speeds and lots of sunshine. There will
be a very small chance for showers/thunderstorms to creep into the
Panhandles, but this chance is low and mainly for the west and
northwestern parts of the Panhandles (15-30 percent). Storms will
be capable of becoming strong to perhaps severe if any develop in
our area. A somewhat similar story is in store for tomorrow.
Coverage of thunderstorm potential might be a little more tomorrow,
but overall still a low end chance for storms. 

Further Details:
In the upper levels, we have two areas of high pressure with
troughing in between. One area of high pressure is sitting over
the eastern Pacific and another off the east coast of the
Carolinas. In between, we have a trough that is moving over
northern parts of the Rockies today. Cross barrier flow from the
base of the trough over Colorado/Wyoming will lead to lee
cyclogenesis this afternoon. A surface low will likely develop
this morning over Nebraska. A trough axis will sag south through
the high plains into eastern parts of New Mexico. This will be
sort of the focal point for storm initiation this afternoon, but
models mostly agree the axis wont make it into the Panhandles 
further limiting our rain chances. We are lacking upper level 
support being too far south from the main shortwave, but forecast 
soundings suggest areas across the Panhandles could hit convective
temperatures today. MLCAPE is only 500-1000 J/kg today with 
slightly higher DCAPE thanks to inverted-v sounding profile and 
large T-Td spread at the surface. Weak mid-level flow, weak shear,
limited upper level dynamics, and small hodographs will make it 
difficult for thunderstorms to maintain a strong updraft. That 
said, slow moving storms could lead to localized flooding and 
downburst potential may lead to strong to perhaps severe storms if
any develop/move into our area. Another round of gradient wind is
expected today with south/southwesterly wind speeds around 15-25 
mph with gust around 30-35 mph. 

For tomorrow, a very similar story will be in place with surface
troughing across the Central Plains and another trough axis
nudging into western parts of the forecast area. Instability, 
shear, and inverted-v profiles are all similar tomorrow as
compared to today. Again, the trough axis doesn't look to make it
into our area, so we may miss out on another round of rain, but 
at least we are progged to reach convective temperatures tomorrow.
All that said, we have a small chance for showers/thunderstorms 
across the northwest TX Panhandle and most of the Oklahoma 
Panhandle tomorrow. Strong to perhaps severe storms could develop
if any storms form or move into our area. 

Guerrero

LONG TERM...
An upper level short wave trough moving quickly across the northern 
Plains Saturday and Saturday night will likely send a cold front 
into southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas by early Sunday 
morning.  This front will likely be a focus for thunderstorm 
development to our north and these storms may send an outflow 
boundary southward into the the Panhandles Sunday morning.  If the 
outflow does materialize, then this could provide a focus for 
thunderstorms across the Panhandles on Sunday and Sunday evening. 
Even if the outflow boundary does not materialize, then we should 
still have some thunderstorms that develop along the lee-side trough 
in southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico that would head this 
way under the weak north northwest flow aloft.

An upper level ridge then builds across the Panhandles on its way to 
the southern Plains by Thursday.  There is some indication that 
thunderstorms may try to enter our western areas on Thursday if the 
ridge axis can move far enough east to allow a moist southwest flow 
aloft to spread across the western Panhandles.

Highs on Sunday and Monday are expected to be around normal or 
slightly below normal depending on the amount of rain and clouds we 
get. Highs will then warm to above normal Tuesday through Thursday 
with the ridge moving across the area.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

36/9