632 
FXUS62 KFFC 231855
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 740 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021/ 

..Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 346 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021/ 

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...

Areas of patchy dense fog have developed early this morning, 
mainly across our eastern counties between Athens and Macon, and 
in the valleys of north GA. Will keep an eye on coverage and 
duration, as an SPS or Dense Fog Advisory might be needed in the 
next hour or so.

For the short term period, the CWA will be situated on the 
eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over TX and OK.
This will result in weak subsidence and a drier atmospheric 
column over much of the CWA today and Tuesday. Today, afternoon 
and evening showers and storms will be confined mainly to the 
southern portion of the CWA, where higher PWATs will be located. 
Still, PWATs across this area are much closer to the average value
for this time of year, as opposed to the above-normal values we 
have dealt with lately. Sufficient SBCAPE but meager mid-level 
lapse rates will make for the possibility of a few strong storms 
with frequent lightning and gusty winds as the primary threats. 
Highs today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, generally
in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

On Tuesday, we will have a similar setup with higher PoPs focused
across the southern portion of the CWA. Models indicate something
of an inverted trough/vort max just off of the GA/SC coast 
tomorrow afternoon and evening, so have likely PoPs across our 
southeastern- most counties. Like today, instability will be high 
enough tomorrow for a few storms to be strong with frequent 
lightning and gusty winds. Highs will be a couple degrees warmer 
tomorrow than today, in the lower to mid-90s.

Martin

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

The broad upper-level high that has dominated the extended period
for the past several days begins to weaken, resulting in a 
relatively ambiguous upper-level flow pattern. The drier air (sub-
1.50" PWATs) that accompanied the ridge is replaced with more 
seasonable moisture beginning on Tuesday as an open tropical wave 
traversing the westernmost fringes of the Bermuda high edges 
toward the southeast US. As a result, diurnally-driven PoPs settle
back in at chance to likely, especially for the southern portions
of our area. The GFS and Euro diverge on just how much the open 
wave will develop before it slides over our CWA. If the stronger 
Euro trend is favored, more widespread coverage of showers and 
storms are possible Friday.

Before the drier airmass begins to erode early in the week, 
temperatures remain on the upswing into the low to mid 90s. The 
potential for heat advisory criteria to be met on Tuesday has been
hinted at over the past several updates, but has trended downward
with latest guidance. Southeastern portions of our CWA, namely 
from Bibb to Washington, may see heat indices approach 105. 

NListemaa/Hochstatter



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Scattered VFR clouds across the area with precip developing south
of a CSG to MCN line. A drier airmass over north and central GA
should keep any developing precipitation south of the TAF sites 
through Tuesday afternoon. Also not expecting any low ceilings to 
develop tonight with things clearing out after sunset. Winds will
stay out of the E to NE at 8kt or less through the period. 

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements. 

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          93  72  94  71 /   5   5  10  10 
Atlanta         93  72  94  72 /   5   5  20   5 
Blairsville     88  65  88  66 /  10   5  20  10 
Cartersville    93  69  94  71 /   5   0  10   5 
Columbus        94  74  94  73 /  20  10  30  10 
Gainesville     92  71  93  71 /   5   5  10  10 
Macon           94  72  94  72 /  20  10  30  20 
Rome            94  69  96  72 /   0   0  10   5 
Peachtree City  93  71  94  71 /  10   5  20   5 
Vidalia         91  74  92  73 /  40  20  60  20 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...01