National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDMQT
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDMQT
Product Timestamp: 2021-08-21 11:41 UTC
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552 FXUS63 KMQT 211141 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 741 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 458 AM EDT SAT AUG 21 2021 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a vigorous, well-defined shortwave lifting ne into southern Manitoba. At the sfc, associated 993mb sfc low pres is over far se Manitoba and tracking nne. Trailing cold front extends s across western MN with a prefrontal sfc trof from ne MN s across far western WI. Ahead of the trof, a sct-bkn line of convection (shra with some embedded isold thunder) has pushed out across western Lake Superior and extends s thru western WI. Another band of convection is farther w in the Duluth area along the sfc trof. Closer to home, it's been another warm night. Temps at 08z range from the middle 60s to the lwr 70s F, warmest w. A few of the traditional cool spots over the e half are around 60. The vigorous shortwave over southern Manitoba will continue lifting ne, reaching Hudson Bay tonight. With best forcing/height falls shifting ne with it, forcing will be diminishing with the cold front moving across the fcst area this aftn thru this evening. Nonetheless, expect convergence along the prefrontal trof and cold front to continue generating sct convection at times given the avbl instability/moisture. Speaking of which, models are actually in quite good agreement showing MLCAPE increasing to roughly 800- 1200j/kg this aftn across roughly the e half of Upper MI prior to fropa. Deep layer shear is fcst to be in the 25-30kt range, marginal for organized storms. So, at this point, still not expecting any svr storms today. With a narrow band of precipitable water around 2.0 inches, roughly 200pct of normal, just ahead of the cold front and with warm cloud depths around 12kft, expect brief, hvy downpours with any of the storms that occur today. Prior to fropa, it will be very humid with dwpts well into the 60s to lwr 70s F. Dwpts will begin to fall w in the aftn. Highs should range from the upper 70s to mid 80s F. Expect breezy s winds gusting up to 25-30mph ahead of the cold front. Postfrontal westerly winds will likely gust to around 40mph on the Keweenaw based on potential momentum transfer from mixing. With incoming pres rises around 4mb/3hr providing an isallobaric wind component aligned with the gradient wind, would not be surprised if some gusts to around 45mph occur at times for a few hrs late aftn/early evening. The southerly winds up Lake MI in advance of the cold front today will build waves sufficiently high for a high swim risk along the Lake MI beaches of Schoolcraft County this aftn. Shra potential will continue over the eastern fcst area this evening until the cold front exits. In the wake of the front, high pres will build toward the Upper Lakes tonight, bringing cooler and drier air into the area. Temps tonight should slip down into the upper 40s over the interior w trending up to around 60F along Lake Superior. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 327 AM EDT SAT AUG 21 2021 Through the extended fcst period, models indicate mean troughing over western Canada, and at times over the western CONUS, as a series of shortwaves eject eastward across the northern CONUS and Upper Great Lakes region in a progressive flow through next week. Based on dynamics and available moisture, it looks like the more promising chances for widespread showers would not be until mid to late next week. Temperatures will fluctuate from near to above normal through much of the period. Beginning Saturday night into Sunday, models indicate any remaining showers ending in the evening over the eastern portion of the cwa, then dry, cooler and less humid conditions thereafter into Sunday as sfc high pressure builds in quickly from the west behind Saturday's shortwave/cold front. Min temps Sat night will fall back into the more comfortable 50s for most locations. Sunday's max temps will be closer to seasonal normals with highs in the 70s and dew points in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Waves generated from fairly gusty nw-n winds behind the front will likely warrant a high swim risk for Alger County on Sunday. The next shortwave moving across the Northern Plains on Sunday will weaken as it lifts into northern Ontario by Monday morning. Models show a weaker pcpn signal with this weakening wave compared to the wave on Saturday. Even though GFS soundings indicate MLCAPE values increasing to 500-1000j/kg Mon ahead of the front, warm nose of nearly 17C temps aloft and fairly significant CIN may prohibit convective development on Mon across much of the area. In the end, the better chc of pcpn with this wave looks to be late Sun night/early Mon over the w in association with an approaching, but weakening 30 kt low-level jet. Otherwise, nothing more than low chc/schc pops are warranted late Sun night/Mon. Max temps will rise back into the lower to mid 80s most locations on Monday and Tuesday. Latest models indicating perhaps a better signal for showers/t- storms with the next shortwave due in late Tue into Wed. Trends indicate better shortwave dynamics and stronger WAA/moisture transport ahead of the system. With MUCAPE values approaching 1000- 1500 j/kg and deep layer shear 40-50 knots there certainly could be some strong to marginally severe storms associated with this system. High pressure building in behind this system should result in dry and cooler conditions on Thursday. Models certainly differ on the timing/strength details but there does appear to be a pretty consistent signal that a broader, deeper trough will dig in from the Northern Plains late next week/weekend bringing more opportunities for rainfall. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 740 AM EDT SAT AUG 21 2021 A cold front will sweep across west and central Upper MI today. Some shra and isold tsra will be possible until the front passes. There remains plenty of uncertainty in whether any of the terminals will be affected by pcpn, so only VCSH was included in the fcst for KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. Under a moist upslope sse wind off Lake MI, a low stratus deck has formed early this morning over central Upper MI, impacting KSAW. These low clouds/LIFR cigs will probably linger for a couple of hrs before the clouds mix out. Otherwise, there may be a period of MVFR cigs at all of the terminals around the time of fropa today. VFR conditions will then prevail at all terminals after fropa as drier air moves into the area. Winds will be gusty today to 20- 30kt. Strongest winds will occur at KCMX where wnw winds after fropa will gust to 35kt or so later this aftn. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 458 AM EDT SAT AUG 21 2021 A cold front will sweep across Lake Superior today thru early this evening. Ahead of the front, s winds will gust to 20-25kt at times. At high obs platforms, expect gusts to 30kt. After frontal passage, incoming pres rises from the w will give postfrontal w winds a boost. Until the axis of the pres rises passes, there will be the potential for some gale force gusts to around 35kt for a few hrs late aftn/early evening, particularly at higher obs platforms. The area from just w and n of the Keweenaw Peninsula toward Granite Island/Stannard Rock should be favored for the higher wind gusts. Winds will then diminish to under 20kt from w to e overnight thru Sun morning as high pres arrives. At the moment, it appears winds will remain generally under 20kt Mon thru Wed. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement from noon EDT today through this evening for MIZ014. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...JAW AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...Rolfson