543 
FXUS65 KPUB 211047 CCA
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
447 AM MDT Sat Aug 21 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 439 AM MDT Sat Aug 21 2021

Currently...

At 3 AM...A broken line of showers were noted over the plains 
extending from roughly Walsenburg northeastward into Crowley 
county. A few light showers have occurred here at the WFO here in 
Pueblo. This activity was associated with a convergence boundary 
that was slowly lifting north. Over th rest of the plains, quite a 
bit of mid cloudiness was noted extending from the mts to the KS 
border, with a noticeable break over the far southeast plains. West 
of the Sangres, skies were clear. 

Today...

Boundary over the area will lift north and weaken with time and 
expect showers to dissipate around sunrise. Flow aloft today will 
increase as another trough, digging into southern Idaho this 
morning, pushed east and lifts out over the N plains. This feature 
will bring a chance of scattered thunderstorms the higher terrain 
today, with the best coverage over the central mtns. Since storms 
will be moving rather quickly and moisture is modest, the likelihood 
of flash flooding in the mtns is rather quite low. 

Temps today will be relatively cool with reading mainly in the 80s 
across the plains and upper 70s over N El Paso county. Valleys will 
see temps around 80F. 

Tonight...

Mostly clear skies are anticipated. Best forcing with the trough 
lifting to our northeast will be north over the region. Cant rule 
out some isolated showers over the central mtns tonight but overall 
expect dry conditions. Mtns will see temps in the 30s tonight with 
mid 60s over the southeast plains. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 439 AM MDT Sat Aug 21 2021

Sunday-Monday...A drier and subsident airmass continues to be 
progged across the area on Sunday behind a passing Northern Rockies 
shortwave, with another minor short wave progged to move through the 
more southwest flow aloft across the region on Monday. Latest model 
runs still indicate the potential for convection developing along a 
dryline across the far southeast plains and across the southern 
mountains where better available moisture remains in place, Sunday 
afternoon and evening. With a slight increase in available moisture 
within the southwest flow aloft, should see isolated to scattered 
showers and storms Monday afternoon over and near the higher 
terrain. with the best coverage along the Continental Divide. 
Temperatures are expected to warm back to above seasonal levels, 
with highs in the 90s to around the century mark across the plains 
Sunday and Monday, with highs mainly in the 70s and 80s across the 
higher terrain.  

Tuesday-Friday...Generally weak west to southwest flow aloft 
looks to become established across the region through the rest of 
the upcoming work week, with occasional disturbances moving 
through the faster zonal flow across the Northern Tier of States. 
Tuesday looks to be a down day for convection, with available 
moisture slowly increasing across across the area again Wednesday 
and Thursday, supporting better coverage of daily convection for 
areas over and near the higher terrain. Temperatures look to 
remain at and above seasonal levels through the rest of the 
extended period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 439 AM MDT Sat Aug 21 2021

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf 
sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. 

An isolated shower may occur at KPUB and possibly KCOS early this 
morning. Isolated convective activity may also occur at the same two 
taf sites later this afternoon and early evening. 

Flow will be diurnal at the taf sites but will be a bit stronger 
than normal and we could see gusts in the 15 to 25 knt range.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH