957 
FXUS64 KAMA 210006 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
706 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, a surface trof will slowly move southward across
the region tonight into Saturday morning with winds becoming
north to northeast. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
may develop Saturday afternoon across parts of the area. However,
confidence is low on location should any storms develop, which
precludes mentioning for this fcst cycle. 

02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 150 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021/ 

SHORT TERM...

A surface trough has moved south and it is found across the Oklahoma 
Panhandle.  Another surface trough trails southward across the 
eastern Panhandles from near Beaver to Claude.  Think the best 
chance of any shower or thunderstorm development will be in the 
eastern Panhandles along the second surface trough.  If a storm can 
get going it will be capable of producing strong winds and brief 
heavy rain.  Any activity should decrease shortly after sunset.

On Saturday, a cold front will be moving slowly south across the 
Panhandles.  This front should provide a focus for shower and 
thunderstorm development in the afternoon lasting through the 
evening.  Some of the storms may become severe with hail to the size 
of quarters and wind gusts to around 60 mph possible.  Heavy rain 
may also cause localized flooding. 

Highs on Saturday will be right around normal with readings in the 
mid 80's to the mid 90's.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...

The extended forecast looks to be one of warm to hot and mostly
dry. The high pressure bubble in the south expands westward and
takes over most of the southern half of the CONUS through most of
the period. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day. There will be
a slight breaking down of the high pressure bubble around mid
week, which will allow for shortwaves to pop storms off the
Rockies. Long range models are in disagreement with whether or not
the storms will make it to the Panhandles. Wednesday looks to be
the best chance of the latter half of the week for these to make
it, so have not dropped out pops that day like the NBM suggests.
Thursday and Friday are further out in time and so have retained
the dry NBM forecast for now. With the break down of the high
pressure, will also see a slight break in high temps for the
latter half of the week from upper 90s to low and mid 90s. 

Beat

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$