National Weather Service Raw Text Product

825 
FXUS64 KTSA 181726
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Relative lull in shower and thunderstorm coverage currently but
expect scattered showers and storms to re-develop over next 
couple of hours with relatively greater coverage from SE OK 
through NW AR. Brief MVFR conditions are possible with direct
impact from storms. Increase in coverage likely early Thu morning
with more widespread impact on flight conditions. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1016 AM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
Deep moisture plume remains in place across southeast OK and
northwest AR this morning, with most of the precip remaining
focused within that zone this morning. A temporary lull underway 
in the wake of a well-defined vort max now moving into western 
AR, but additional activity likely this afternoon as ample 
moisture transport continues. Farther north will see unstable and
weakly capped air this afternoon and isolated to widely scattered
storms expected as a result. Only minor adjustments made to the 
forecast for this morning. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 638 AM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021/ 

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy dense fog will continue until shortly after sunrise at 
KBVO. Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
to develop across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this 
morning/afternoon. IFR conditions will again be possible in the 
stronger storms through at least mid evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 304 AM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and storms are on the agenda again today
as isentropic lift increases in advance of an upper level 
shortwave currently across south-central Oklahoma. The 
greatest chances of showers and storms will be across southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas and tapering off across northeast
Oklahoma. While some of the storms could become strong with 
gusty winds. The main concern will be locally heavy rains with 
precipitable water values ramping up above two inches.  

The chances of showers and storms continue on Thursday as a
southwesterly flow aloft develops with the abundant moisture 
still in place. Locally heavy rains will again be a concern. 

Friday will see lower chances of showers and storms with
the lift associated with the southwesterly flow aloft decreasing. 
A cold front will attempt to move into the region Friday night 
into Saturday as a mid-level shortwave sweeps across the 
northern Plains. However, it looks like the boundary will stall 
just to the north of the area. The boundary will be close enough
to trigger some showers and storms across the area Friday night
into Sunday. 

With the frontal boundary remaining to the north of the area 
over the weekend, the heat will begin return with temperatures 
slightly above normal. The heat will ramp up even more early 
next week as an upper level ridge builds across the region. 
High temperatures will be around 5 degrees above normal.

Heat headlines will possible this weekend and into next 
week.  

Have stayed fairly close the NBM guidance through the 
period. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  74  88  75 /  40  40  60  40 
FSM   85  73  88  75 /  70  50  70  40 
MLC   84  72  85  74 /  60  50  70  20 
BVO   86  72  87  73 /  40  30  50  40 
FYV   83  69  85  71 /  60  40  70  40 
BYV   83  69  86  72 /  60  30  70  40 
MKO   84  72  86  73 /  50  50  70  30 
MIO   86  71  86  72 /  40  20  60  40 
F10   86  71  88  73 /  50  50  70  30 
HHW   84  73  86  74 /  70  60  70  10 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....14