421 
FXUS63 KOAX 100440
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1140 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

Despite hazy skies with smoke overhead, temperatures have still
climbed into the lower to middle 90s, with still a couple hours 
of heating remaining. And combined with dewpoints in the 70s (and 
even a few locations showing 80-82), heat index values with in the
97 to 110 range. Thus, the heat advisory continues! 

Otherwise, CAMs continue to indicate convection may fire along the
cold front across central NE 5-7pm. And there is a very small
signal that a storm or two may develop along the boundary into
northeast NE this evening, but the convergence isn't as strong
in our area, and therefore will only keep a 20% chance in the
forecast. And if something develops, there's a marginal risk that
it could be strong. 

The frontal boundary does sink southward overnight into Tuesday
morning. This could be the focus for isolated non severe storms 
across southeast NE Tuesday morning, and then perhaps slightly
stronger storms Tuesday afternoon with the surface front still in
the area. And if a storm or two develops in the afternoon and
evening tomorrow, there's a marginal risk that they could be
strong to severe near the tri state area of NE/KS/MO border
region. There also still remains the chance for heat index
criteria along/south of the front Tuesday afternoon. The current 
heat advisory includes the I80 corridor Tuesday, but given the 
location of that surface frontal boundary, that northern edge from
Lincoln to Omaha and Council Bluffs could eventually be taken out
of the advisory. Will let the advisory continue for now.

The frontal boundary essentially dissipates, and allows the
heat/humidity combo to rebuild into Wednesday. Thus am guessing
we'll need another heat advisory, or an extension of what's
already ongoing, along and south of I80 for Wednesday afternoon.
And to some degree, the heat continues into Thursday as well with
afternoon heat index values again 100-104 in the same area for
Thursday. 

There is a stronger cold front progged into the area Thursday.
This could trigger isolated strong Thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon into Friday. But it also ushers in slightly cooler and
near normal air for Friday through Monday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

Thunderstorms may occur between 09Z today and 04Z Wednesday across
southeast Nebraska and parts of Iowa. Confidence in thunderstorm
timing is low, and thus no mention of thunder was placed in the
KLNK or KOMA TAFs at this time. Should storms occur, they may
produce damaging winds, hail, strong up/downdrafts or LLWS
(especially between 21Z today and 02Z Wednesday).

Away from any thunderstorms, VFR conditions (visibility of 6 SM or
greater and ceilings AOA 5,000 ft AGL) are anticipated. Prevailing
southerly winds through 09Z today should give way to variable 
winds of 3 to 12 knots between 09Z today and 06Z Wednesday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ052-053-066>068-
     088>093.

IA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...Albright