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861 FXUS64 KFWD 090456 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1156 PM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Monday/ High pressure aloft and a continuous fetch of Gulf moisture will result in hot and humid weather early this week. Lows tonight will range from the mid 70s to around 80. Afternoon temperatures Monday will be in the mid 90s in the east with upper 90s to near 104 across the central and western zones. Afternoon heat index values will soar between 105 and 108 degrees across all but the southwest zones; therefore, we will maintain the current Heat Advisory starting at noon Monday. One saving grace will be southerly breezes in the 10 to 20 mph range which will offer some minor relief from the heat. The only precipitation expected in the short term portion of the forecast will be a slight chance of afternoon storms across the southeast zones where moisture will be most abundant and the sea breeze will make a brief appearance. 79 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 316 PM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021/ /Monday Night Onward/ Broad ridging will continue to be in place from Texas to the far southeastern United States. The main hazard each day will be the hot temperatures during the afternoon that will lead to heat index values in excess of 105 through the middle of the week. Strong subsidence over our region should prevent the development of showers and storms over our region. Having said that, afternoon seabreeze activity is likely to develop across the coastal region then migrate northward each afternoon. At this time, it appears the potential for any afternoon convection will remain at or below 10% mainly across the Brazos Valley and our far southeastern counties. A slight shift in the upper level pattern will reduce the influence of the ridge as shortwaves attempt to push toward our region beginning Friday. At this time, it looks like any ascent from Friday's shortwave should remain across far East Texas, leading to no impacts across our region. A weather feature of interest that will continue to be monitored closely will be an approaching cold front from the northeast in response to a building trough in the eastern CONUS. If this cold front is able to move across the area, or even stall somewhere across North or Central Texas, rain chances will increase this upcoming weekend. Regardless of whether or not the front arrives, most ensemble guidance is in agreement that by next weekend, daytime highs should be at to slightly below normal for this time of the year. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ A 30 knot low level jet late this evening will continue to send moisture up the Balcones Escarpment, resulting in another round of overnight stratus. MVFR ceilings will likely arrive in Waco between 09Z and 10Z with temporary ceilings around 1500 ft across the Metroplex TAF sites between 12Z and 15Z. The strength of the low level jet should keep all ceilings above 1000 ft. The stratus will lift and scatter by 16Z with VFR expected through Monday evening. A breezy south wind will continue through Monday evening in the 12 to 16 knot range along with some gusts around 23 knots. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 98 79 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 78 98 77 98 76 / 0 0 0 5 0 Paris 77 95 77 95 76 / 0 0 0 5 0 Denton 77 99 77 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 78 97 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 80 98 80 98 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 77 96 77 96 76 / 0 0 0 5 0 Corsicana 78 96 77 97 76 / 0 5 0 5 0 Temple 76 97 76 97 74 / 5 5 0 5 0 Mineral Wells 76 98 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175. && $$