832 
FXUS64 KFWD 030535
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1235 AM CDT Tue Aug 3 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation... 

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday night/

Weak northerly flow continues across the region this morning as
North/Central TX remain to the north of a cold front. At 03Z, this
cold front was analyzed along a line from Lufkin to Cotulla to
Presidio. While temperatures are quite a bit "cooler" than they
were this time 48 hours ago, it is still rather muggy,
particularly to the east of I-35 where dewpoints are in the 70s.
To the west of I-35, dewpoints drop into the 60s.

The main weather question in the near-term is whether we get any
fog development around daybreak. The NBM shows some slight
visibility reductions across eastern portions of the CWA, but with
a solid mid-level cloud deck remaining across the region, fog
development may be inhibited. Some localized patchy fog isn't out
of the question, but not anticipating any widespread impacts at
this time.

Skies should remain mostly sunny to partly cloudy for most of the
day Tuesday with some haziness expected as smoke from western
wildfires makes its way into the region. The main forecast concern
on Tuesday will be the convective potential however. The cold
front boundary looks to remain stretched across our southern and
eastern CWA through the afternoon, which may act as a focus for
convective development. Convection is a bit more certain across
Central TX, thus the highest PoPs were carried in this region
(still only Slight to Chance PoPs though). Across North TX, while
the NBM had little in the way of PoPs, some of the HREF members
(particularly the HRRR) did indicate the possibility of some
convection near and north of I-20 and near and east of I-35. For
this reason, opted to carry Slight PoPs in these regions. Any
impacts should be short-lived however, and most locations will not
see any precipitation. Otherwise, temperatures will be slightly
warmer than they were on Monday, with highs likely topping out
near 90 F for most locations.

Godwin

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 315 PM CDT Mon Aug 2 2021/
/Tuesday Night through Next Weekend/

The potent August cold front will keep temperatures on the cool
side of normal for the next several days. It will also scour the 
deep-layer moisture and allow for several hot, but pleasant by 
August standards, days through the middle of the work week. As the
surface high shifts east, weak moisture return should allow for a
few diurnally driven scattered showers and storms across Central 
Texas Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. One caveat to add into 
the forecast is a strong shortwave trough that will move into the 
region late Thursday afternoon and evening. The addition of large 
scale ascent may support more widespread showers than the current 
guidance indicates...particularly if the pool of moisture over 
Northern Mexico is drawn north in advance of the shortwave. We 
will have to keep an eye on how this evolves over the next day or 
so.

Once the shortwave moves east, the mid level ridge to our west
elongates and moves over North Texas. This will bring a warming
trend with increased southerly flow. Expect temperatures to climb
from Friday onward, with triple digit temperatures possible as we
head into the upcoming weekend.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Light north flow and VFR prevail this morning. Patchy BR and brief
MVFR CIGs may impact KACT 12-16Z later this morning, but expecting
more widespread BR to remain well to the east of TAF sites.
Isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA may develop across parts of
Central TX during the afternoon, as well as across North TX to the
east of the D10 TRACON area. Coverage should be fairly sparse
however, resulting in minimal impacts to arrival gates.

Godwin

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  92  72  93  74 /   0   5   5   5   5 
Waco                71  91  71  92  72 /   0   5   5  10   5 
Paris               69  88  68  89  70 /   5   0   0   5   5 
Denton              67  91  68  93  71 /   5   5   0   5   5 
McKinney            69  90  69  92  71 /   5   5   0   5   5 
Dallas              74  91  74  93  76 /   0   5   5   5   5 
Terrell             69  89  69  91  71 /   0   5   0   5   5 
Corsicana           71  90  70  92  73 /   0   5   5  10   5 
Temple              69  91  70  93  71 /   0  10   5  20   5 
Mineral Wells       67  89  67  91  71 /   0   5   5  10   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$