National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDTOP
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDTOP
Product Timestamp: 2021-07-31 23:37 UTC
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561 FXUS63 KTOP 312337 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 637 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021 Still holding onto the heat warning over portions of east central Kansas but will likely be able to expire early as the front continues to sag south with cooler dewpoints filtering in behind. Still have had heat index values around 105 through Ottawa back into Emporia so would like to ensure the trend of cooling continues which another hour or two will likely reveal. The upper air pattern continues to transition pointing to a cooler next few days ahead. The western CONUS ridge is building with a mid level shortwave digging on the right flank of the ridge into portions of the central Plains. This is helping to aid the push south of the cold front through the area this afternoon as well. Isentropic lift over this boundary and the residual moisture is helping to keep a band of mainly showers going from generally the Kansas City area back along I-70 back into areas of north central Kansas. This activity continues to be light to moderate and scattered. So even with higher PW airmass still in place not anticipating many impressive rain totals out of this batch of showers with an occasional embedded storm. This should last for the next few hours into sunset. Further south, the severe threat today will likely be south of the forecast area closer to the Kansas and Oklahoma border region. But if a storm does form and impact east central counties it would likely pose a damaging wind hazard. The rest of the week starting tomorrow looks dry and mainly pleasant with a return to the 80s and dewpoints initially returning to the 50s by tomorrow night. This will make the air almost feel as if it is early fall! && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021 Outside of some intermittent MVFR cigs at KTOP/KFOE over the next few hours, VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light winds overnight increase to around 10 kts Sunday afternoon with clearing skies. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Flanagan