National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDTOP
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDTOP
Product Timestamp: 2021-07-24 20:04 UTC
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674 FXUS63 KTOP 242004 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 304 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 As of 20Z Saturday afternoon, upper level ridging continues to reside across a portion of the central and southern Plains. An elongated upper trough extends from northeast Canada through the upper midwest with an attendant, weak surface trough axis extending through northern KS. A modest temperature gradient exists behind the trough axis, but this is mainly due to residual cloud cover from earlier today. Otherwise, the Topeka forecast area remains within the hot and humid sector with temperatures well into the 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s. Combining the two, heat index values have risen into the 100-110 degree range for most. As the weak frontal zone slides into the area this afternoon and tonight, there may be a few showers/isolated storms. The primary concern with the strongest storm would be lightning and gusty winds. Additional showers/storms are possible Sunday as the boundary remains in the area with weak mid/upper perturbations glancing the area. With the likelihood for increased clouds and a few showers/storms tomorrow, temperatures will a touch cooler with highs in the low to middle 90s. The humidity will remain nearly the same as today with afternoon heat index values around 100. Rain chances will taper off by Monday afternoon/evening as the upper ridge amplifies and overspreads the central Plains. Monday's temperatures are likely to be similar to Sunday with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values around 100. The brutal and excessive heat returns by Tuesday as highs touch the low to upper 90s. The heat further builds for Wednesday through Saturday as air temperatures approach 100. With humid conditions remaining as well, heat index values will approach heat advisory criteria each afternoon (Wednesday-Saturday). Otherwise, rain chances appear minimal through next week but may return next weekend as the upper ridge regresses westward and a weak surface front approaches the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A stray storm is possible this evening and overnight, although confidence is much too low to introduce at the terminals. Otherwise, a weak front will encroach the terminals through the period and gradually transition winds to variable, although remaining below 10 kt. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024- 026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Baerg AVIATION...Baerg