074 
FXUS64 KMOB 232110
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
410 PM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Saturday/...An upper trof oriented
near/along the East Coast moves gradually off into the western
Atlantic through the period, and in the process brings a rather
weak shortwave trof southward through the forecast area. In
response, an upper ridge which extends from the eastern Gulf to 
near the ArkLaTex retreats from the eastern Gulf while expanding
over the southern/central Plains and building into the southeast
states. A modest surface low located just east of the Florida 
peninsula remains nearly in place during the period. A very weak 
surface trof extending from the surface low into northern Alabama 
moves slowly through the forecast area tonight, though appears to
attempt to reform along the southern portion of the area on
Saturday, aided by a sea breeze circulation. MLCAPE values this
afternoon and Saturday afternoon look to range from 1500-2500
J/kg. While abundant deep layer moisture remains in place over the
area with precipitable water values typically ranging from 
2.0-2.2 inches, model soundings show some mid level dry air is 
present. With weak shear, this environment looks supportive of
some strong storms, and an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled
out with strong gusty winds as the main threat. Am concerned that
despite the unstable and moist environment during the period,
forcing associated with the sea breeze, surface trof and shortwave
trof is just too weak to support much more than scattered
convective coverage this afternoon and Saturday afternoon. Have
limited pops this afternoon to good chance at best as a
consequence with similar, chance to good chance pops, following
for Saturday. Lows tonight range from the lower/mid 70s inland to
the mid/upper 70s at the coast. Highs this afternoon and on 
Saturday will be mostly in the lower 90s except for mid 90s over 
portions of south central Alabama. Heat index values both this 
afternoon and Saturday afternoon will be mostly 102-107 with a few
higher spots possible but not with sufficient coverage to warrant
consideration of a Heat Advisory. A low risk of rip currents is 
expected through Saturday. /29



&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...Broad mid to 
upper level ridging continues to stretch across much of the U.S 
throughout the short term. At the surface, an inverted trough 
shifts across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico as
it attempts to close off into a weak low pressure. Models 
continue to show this surface feature progressing westward across 
the Gulf and keep it south of the forecast area. With little in 
terms of forcing, expecting isolated to scattered showers and 
thunderstorms each day, with Monday having slightly lower 
coverages around 20-30%. Convection will follow a diurnal pattern 
with showers and storms initiating over the Gulf and coast in the 
early morning and then transitioning inland throughout the 
afternoon and evening. Showers and storms should begin diminishing
later in the evening due to the loss of daytime heating and 
instability. Seasonal temps for this time of year continue into 
the short term as highs inland climb into the lower to mid 90s 
each afternoon. Along the immediate coast, highs will reach into 
the upper 80s to low 90s each day. Dew points generally in the mid
to upper 70s will help support area wide heat indices around 102 
to 107 degrees. /14



&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...A mid to upper level 
trough begins to dig across the northeastern U.S. on Tuesday and 
Wednesday as the mid to upper level ridge over the much of the 
western and central U.S. builds. This ridging will likely help keep 
the the trough from digging further south into the forecast area. 
Overall, the region will be in between the ridge to our west and the 
trough to our east throughout the period. At the surface, weak 
ridging over the western Atlantic begins to build back over the 
Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf by mid-week. Moisture 
also starts to increase by mid-week with PWAT's ranging between 2 
and 2.3 inches area wide. Therefore, isolated to scattered showers 
and thunderstorms can be expected each day, with Wednesday having 
the highest coverage around 60-70%. Temperatures continue to soar 
through the period with highs generally in the lower to mid 90s. 
Meanwhile, lows only dip down into the lower to mid 70s inland with 
mid to upper 70s along the coast. Heat indices continue to hang 
around the 102 to 106 degree each day. /14



&&

.MARINE...No impacts are expected through the period except for 
winds and seas higher near isolated to scattered showers and storms. 
/29



&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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