049 
FXUS64 KMAF 230751
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
251 AM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be near CNM through the
overnight period. There is a slight chance of low ceilings for MAF
beginning around 11z but confidence is low. There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms for the terminals during the afternoon
and evening. Winds will generally be out of the southeast to south
with some variability due to convection in the area. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

A broad upper ridge is over the southern half of the country with an 
upper low over West Texas. High amounts of low-level moisture 
will be across the area today. These conditions will allow for 
showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop and move across 
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico today. The highest chances of 
rain and storms will be in Southeast New Mexico and along and 
south of the Pecos River. Temperatures today will be a little 
warmer with highs in the lower to mid 90s across much of the area.
The upper low moves west of the region on Saturday which will 
reduce precipitation chances across the Permian Basin. 
Temperatures on Saturday are expected to warm up a bit from today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Jul 23 2021

On Sun models are in good agreement the subtropical ridge will have 
a bifurcated center/s with the secondary maxima having built nwwd 
INVOF TX Panhandle. Mon the centers of subtropical ridge becomes 
one and by consensus will be located in WY. According to NAEFS 5h 
height/85h temp forecast there are no anomalys, although temps 
will have been on an increasing trend the few days prior and we 
continue to favor the tempered approach shown on the NBM. PoPs Sun
night and Mon PM will mostly be confined to the mtns and nearby 
plains with a sly steering wind Sun and ely Mon. The subtropical 
ridge will remain to the n Tue-Wed with some model indication of a
wave in the mid-level elys generating some precip along and s of 
I-20 Wed PM. NBM continues to downplay temp increases thru Thu 
with NAEFS not showing positive height/temp anomalys until Fri/Sat
of next week and NBM consistently depicts normal to slightly 
below normal high temps. This with relatively narrow spreads and 
recent out performance of the NBM we will not make much change.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               93  71  96  73 /  20  20  10  10 
Carlsbad                 92  68  93  71 /  30  30  20  30 
Dryden                   96  73  96  73 /  20  20  10  10 
Fort Stockton            96  71  96  71 /  30  30  30  20 
Guadalupe Pass           86  65  85  66 /  30  40  30  30 
Hobbs                    91  67  93  70 /  20  20  20  20 
Marfa                    89  61  88  62 /  30  30  40  30 
Midland Intl Airport     94  71  95  72 /  20  20  10  10 
Odessa                   94  71  95  72 /  20  20  10  20 
Wink                     96  71  97  74 /  20  20  20  20 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$