464 
FXUS65 KABQ 211745 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1145 AM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Showers and thunderstorms will develop by 19-20Z over the northern
and western mountains. Most storms today will focus over the north
central and west central areas of the state as storms shift off the
mountains toward the west around 10kts. KGUP, KFMN and KSAF will have
the greatest chance to see impacts from thunderstorms with brief
excursions into MVFR due to low cigs/vsbys in heavy rainfall. Much of
the thunderstorm activity should diminish by 06-07Z, though a few
showers and thunderstorms may persist a few hours longer. On
Thursday, storms will start by late morning across the northern and
western mountains. Storms are expected to be more widespread over
central and western NM with the threat for heavy rainfall and low
cigs/vsbys in the aftn/eve. 

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 AM MDT Wed Jul 21 2021...
.SYNOPSIS...
Storm coverage increases across central and western New Mexico 
starting today with the most widespread coverage likely Thursday 
through Saturday. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be an 
increasing concern each day this week, especially across the west 
where localized totals could exceed two inches. Temperatures will 
remain near to slight below normal through the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A similar weather scenario to yesterday is forecast for today with a 
slight shift westward. 00Z HREF continues to hit north-central and 
west-central areas the hardest this afternoon with very similar 
storm steering flow to yesterday. Sandias/east mountain areas and 
the ABQ metro will likely be spared today given that the deformation 
axis is about 50 miles farther west this afternoon. Issued flash 
flood watch for portions of northern and west-central NM as a result 
of plentiful low-level moisture and the resulting rain rates falling 
on areas that have been saturated from recent heavy rains. 
Convection is forecast to taper off most areas several hours after 
sunset with isolated showers and thunderstorms continuing over the 
northwest quarter until midnight or so. 07Z HRRR smoke forecast for 
today reveals less to much less in the way of elevated smoke for 
central and especially eastern NM today.

Inverted cold core closed low remains on track to move over west TX 
on Thursday. Numerical prediction models agree that this feature 
will result in increased lift/deformation over the western half of 
the state Thursday afternoon. The additional lift from this low will 
combine with abundant low-level moisture (precipitable water values 
above an inch most areas) and daytime heating to result in numerous 
strong thunderstorms producing very heavy rainfall. A flash flood 
watch will likely be needed for much of northern and western NM 
Thursday but held off for now as to avoid confusion with today's 
watch.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
Models are still coming into better agreement with the retrograding 
upper-level low although there are still some big timing differences 
amongst the models. By Thursday night and Friday, models have this 
low just entering far southeast NM, and the H5 high is pushed 
westward. The low makes slow westward progress south of I-40 on 
Friday, and PWATs continue to rise for areas west of the central 
mountain chain with values well over an inch. Models have the 00Z 
Sat PWAT at KABQ ranging from 1.1 to 1.3", above the 90th percentile
and nearing the daily max of 1.27". The latest WPC Day 3 ERO paints 
a broad slight risk for excessive rainfall across much of western NM.
Heavy rain and flash flooding will become an increasing concern, 
especially depending on how much rain falls the previous day. The 
model differences in the track and timing of the low start to come 
into play this weekend. Most guidance is generally moving the low in
a north-northwest direction into central NM. The NAM and GFS track 
it into AZ by Saturday while the ECMWF and Canadian are notably 
slower and keep the low over NM through the weekend. Regardless, an 
active weekend is ahead with widespread showers and thunderstorms, 
and heavy rain and flash flooding will be the biggest threat, 
especially across western NM.

The low then exits by early next week, and the H5 high reorganizes 
to our east although there have been some new model differences in 
how fast it builds over OK/TX next week. When this happens, a more 
traditional monsoon pattern looks to set up across the area.

33/15

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns are forecast during the next 7 days thanks 
to a slow moving upper-level low that will trigger very heavy 
rainfall and flash flooding for much of the area from the central 
mountain chain westward Thursday through the weekend.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones... 
NMZ203-204-206-207-210-211.

&&

$$