734 
FXUS63 KABR 180128 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
828 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

Made a few changes this evening. The chances for convection appear
less than forecast. Latest CAMS indicate little if any convection
overnight. However, with a moderate LLJ providing for some WAA
overnight, along with a weak wave aloft, will not completely get 
rid of pops, but did minimize them greatly. Lows look okay for
now. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

Rising upper level heights over our region will be the story in the 
short term with possible thunderstorms tonight west of the James 
Valley. An upper ridge west of our region will build through Sunday 
night and close off. 50H heights of 592 west of our region this 
afternoon will build into eastern sd through Sunday night as the 
ridge sharpens/closes off to our west. Northwest flow over region 
tonight will become almost straight north Sunday and Sunday night 
increasing the subsidence over our region being on the east side of 
the upper high pressure area. Otherwise, for tonight a weak short 
wave trough coming over the ridge and down across our region could 
still bring some showers/storms to the region west of the James 
Valley. The ops models and hi-res models have downplayed this 
occurring tonight into Sunday morning. Therefore, adjusted pops down 
through this time to slight chance/low chances. The satellite and 
radar already show some showers/storms far west and northwest of our 
cwa late this afternoon. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer than 
today with mid 80s to the lower 90s for highs with mostly sunny 
skies. Sunday night will be dry with mostly clear skies with lows in 
the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

The main stories through the long term period involve increasingly 
hot temperatures and predominantly dry conditions. This, in response 
to nearly stationary upper-level high pressure centered over 
Colorado and an associated upper-level ridge across the Northern 
Plains. Temperatures peak Wednesday through Friday, when highs are 
forecast to reach the low 90s F (higher elevations of the Prairie 
Coteau) to near or above 100 F (central South Dakota). Meanwhile, 
dewpoints in the 60s will provide for some mugginess, and helping to 
keep overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. While most areas 
will stay dry through the work-week, a few shortwave ridge-riders do 
provide at least a slim opportunity for showers and storms on and 
off, beginning Tuesday evening. This pattern does not bode well for 
the drought, and with increasingly drying fuels, elevated fire 
conditions will be possible especially across central SD when an 
overlap of less than 30 percent minimum RH and southerly wind gusts 
of 15 to 25+ mph occur on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Elevated smoke will occur overnight, but should not reduce vsbys
substantially. Otherwise expected VFR conditions with isolated
storms possible over the Missouri valley.  


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...Lueck
AVIATION...TDK