472 
FXUS64 KMOB 142316 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
616 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday night/...Forecast generally on 
track, with minor adjustments made to end the current convection 
a bit sooner this evening. Otherwise, no adjustments made. 
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...General VFR conditions were noted across the forecast 
area at 23z. Isolated showers and thunderstorms were bringing
local drops to low end MVFR levels. Gennerally southerly winds 
around 5 knots were noted on area observations. With the approach 
of sunset, am expecting the current convection to decrease in 
coverage and intensity. Winds over the majority of the area are 
expected to become light, with the exception being south of I-10 
and winds remaining southerly around 5 knots. Fog development over
southeast Mississippi is expected to bring MVFR VISBYs after 06z,
and quickly mix out soon after sunrise. Another round of isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms will form late Thursday 
morning through Monday afternoon, bringing local drops in 
conditions to MVFR levels. Southerly winds will rise to 5 to 10 
knots with the day's heating Thursday, around 10 knots closer 
to the coast as a seabreeze moves inland in the mid to late 
afternoon. 
/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021/ 

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday/...Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will begin diminishing later in the 
evening, ending primarily due to loss of daytime heating and
instability. Tomorrow looks to be a rinse and repeat of today as
an upper level ridge remains situated over the southeastern 
CONUS. However, this ridge begins creeping slightly east as an 
upper level trough starts to dig across the north central CONUS. 
At the surface, an east to west oriented ridge continues to extend
over the forecast area. Deep southerly flow in the upper and 
lower levels of the atmosphere will maintain abundant moisture, 
with PWAT's ranging from 1.7 to 2.0 inches area wide. Instability 
also remains sufficient with MLCAPE values between 1500 to 2500 
J/KG. Scattered showers and storms are expected again tomorrow 
with slightly more coverage (40-50%) due to the retreating upper 
level ridge. Similar to today, convection will be diurnally driven
and will initially fire up offshore and along the coast and then 
progress inland throughout the day. A few strong storms could be 
possible with the main concerns being gusty winds, frequent 
lightning, and heavy rainfall. Localized flooding could be a 
concern in some of the slower moving showers and storms given the 
already high amounts of rain we have received lately. Areas of 
patchy fog could also develop overnight due to the light winds and
clear skies, but the fog should not linger long after sunrise. 
Any areas that see rain during the day are more likely to observe 
fog overnight. Overnight lows tonight will only fall into the lower
70s inland, with mid to upper 80s at the beaches. High temperatures
on Thursday will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with
a few localized areas potentially reaching into the mid 90s. With
dew points in the lower to mid 70s inland, heat indices could 
stretch into the 100-103F range. /14/12 

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...A few showers
or storms from Thursday afternoon may linger into the early evening
hours, but should quickly diminish. Modest upper level height falls
are expected by Friday as ridging over the area weakens and retreats
to the east. This is in response to a trough axis that moves east
out of the Rockies and western Plains and be extending from the 
Great Lakes south to the Lower MS River Valley by late Friday and
Friday night. The same general pattern then holds Saturday and
Saturday night. The weakening subsidence from the decaying ridge 
aloft, combined with PWATs in the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range, and the
influence of the approaching upper trough from the west all 
suggest a return to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
by Friday afternoon and again on Saturday afternoon, with slightly
lower chances during the overnight periods. As was the case in the
previous forecast package, we maintained the highest rain chances
over the western zones which will be in closest proximity to the 
aforementioned trough and where the most ample moisture will be
pooled along the western periphery of the low level ridge. No 
real changes in the temperature forecast with upper 80s/low 90s 
for highs and low to mid 70s for lows. Heat indices potentially
climbing into the upper 90s to low 100s each day. /12 

EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Weak ridging aloft 
continues to break down into early next week, bringing a return of
the wetter than normal pattern across the area. Very moist airmass
returns with PWATS in 2.0 to 2.2 inches. As has been the case for
much of the summer, locally heavy rainfall will again be possible
across much of the area early next week. Although greater in
coverage, showers and storms will generally continue to follow 
our typical convective summertime pattern through the period.
Severe potential appears to be low at this time, but precip
loading and wet microbursts could produce some stronger gusty
winds with some of the storms. As far as high temperatures as 
concerned, generally upper 80s to low 90s persist over the 
forecast area through the period. Lows remain in the low 70s 
inland, with mid to upper 70s closer the coast. Heat indices climb
into the upper 90s to low 100s each day. /12 

MARINE...Southeasterly to southerly flow is expected to remain 
light to moderate through the weekend, with seas generally 2 to 3 
feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over the 
marine area with the main concerns being lightning, gusty winds, and 
locally higher seas. These storms will be most prevalent over the 
marine area overnight and in the early morning hours. /14

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob