National Weather Service Raw Text Product

063 
FXUS64 KMAF 140722
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
222 AM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the period. The NAM is 
showing some MVFR CIGs may form 12-15Z at MAF/HOB but confidence 
is not high enough to place in the TAFs due to other models not 
showing any low clouds. Winds will remain southeasterly and 
occasionally gusty.

Hennig

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

West Texas and southeastern New Mexico will remain caught between 
upper level high pressure systems over the southeastern U.S. and 
the western states. Thus anomalously low upper heights will continue 
to translate into below normal temperatures in our CWA through 
tomorrow. These cool temps and modest mid level (700-500mb) lapse 
rates will prevent convection from developing except perhaps some 
very isolated afternoon storms in the Davis Mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

Our below normal trend in temperatures will continue into the 
extended with a further emphasis on the cooler weather anticipated 
early to mid-next week behind yet another cold front. Temperatures 
will reside in the U80s and 90s from Fri-Sun before sliding back to 
as much as 10-15 degrees below normal as the pattern evolves. 
Ridging out west will continue to build through the end of the week 
and weekend with center located over the central Rockies. This will 
place West TX and Southeast NM into the southern periphery of the 
circulation with N/NE flow aloft. This will keep a majority of PM 
convection likely confined to the west of the Pecos river outside a 
few cells pulsing in the western half of the Permian Basin or rogue 
outflows. Best chance for precip will remain the terrain centers 
with the Davis Mtns well into the typical summertime trend of 
afternoon storms, petering out at sunset. 

Next week will introduce another cold front thanks to a 
strengthening shortwave into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Lower 
heights combined with post frontal environment will allow for well 
below normal temps to comprise all of West TX except for potentially 
the Rio Grande Valley. Considering the projected easterly component 
of the winds, pooling moisture from east-central TX will make its 
way back to the western half of the state, allowing for a greater 
threat of widespread convection each day. Given the proximity of the 
front with attendant moisture field, it's looking pretty active and 
wet across much of the region. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               89  70  93  71 /   0   0   0  10 
Carlsbad                 93  69  95  71 /   0   0  10  20 
Dryden                   91  70  94  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton            92  69  96  71 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass           87  68  88  68 /   0   0  10  20 
Hobbs                    90  68  93  69 /   0   0  10  10 
Marfa                    86  59  89  62 /  10  10  10  10 
Midland Intl Airport     89  69  93  71 /   0   0   0  10 
Odessa                   90  69  93  71 /   0   0   0  10 
Wink                     95  71  98  73 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...10