000 
FXUS61 KRLX 140646
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
246 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak boundary exits early today with continuing chances for 
showers and storms. High pressure builds in tonight and Thursday,
before unsettled weather returns on Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 242 AM Wednesday...

A weak surface boundary exits east of the Appalachians early today, 
serving as a focus region to promote scattered showers or 
storms. Meanwhile, a weak upper level disturbance passes east. 
Believe diurnal heating and ample low level moisture, in the 
presence of the aforementioned boundary, will allow for 
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, some capable to produce 
heavy rainfall. Under PWATs in the order of 1.6 inches, sfc- 
based CAPE exceeding 2,500 J/kg, and low deep layered shear, 
could still produce storms with very heavy downpours and locally
damaging winds. 

Drier conditions are expected tonight as the sfc high pressure
takes control.

Near normal temperatures expected this afternoon with highs 
generally in the mid 80s lowlands ranging into the lower 70s higher 
elevations. Tonight will be very muggy with areas of fog developing 
along river valleys and over areas that receive rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 304 PM Tuesday...

Any scattered showers and thunderstorms remaining across the
area Wednesday evening should dissipate shortly after sunset, 
with rather tranquil conditions for the region during the day 
Thursday as high pressure across the southeast will be in 
control. There could be a few highly isolated showers or storms 
across the far southern portion of the region and the mountains,
but this will be the exception, not the rule. High temperatures
Thursday will be slightly above normal, with upper 80s to near 
90 across the lowlands, with 70s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 304 PM Tuesday...

The long term period begins with a cold front approaching the
region from the northwest. Guidance has been fairly consistent
with its progression, with the chance for scattered showers and
storms beginning Friday afternoon across the northwest portions
of the area. The main question continues to be with the timing 
of the front moving through the region. The front will tend to 
slow, possibly stall, across the region throughout the weekend, 
which will favor a continued chance for scattered showers and 
storms on both Saturday and Sunday. Shower/storm chances begin 
to diminish on Monday, especially across areas further north, 
with the far southern portions of the region holding on to the 
greatest chance for precipitation as the front continues to 
slowly exit the region. Friday looks to be the warmest day of 
the period, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 
across the lowlands. The weekend should see a return to near 
seasonable temperatures, with a slow warmup to start the new work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 AM Wednesday...

A weak frontal boundary should exit east of the eastern mountains 
this morning. However, a weak upper level disturbance will pass at 
the same time providing weak forcing. Under these marginal 
conditions, models develop MVFR ceilings along with moderate 
showers across central WV by early this morning. MVFR ceilings 
lifts to VFR this afternoon, but will likely deteriorate once 
again under convection. Diurnal heating and ample low level 
moisture will allow for strong bouyancy to support isolated 
strong thunderstorms with heavy rainfall through Wednesday 
afternoon. Uncertain if convection will affect directly any 
terminal, thus included VCTS at most sites by mid morning into 
the afternoon hours. 

Then, high pressure builds in taking control of the weather 
conditions tonight. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
     
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A thunderstorm may impact a TAF site or two
Wednesday afternoon.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 07/14/21
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR forecast, but brief IFR possible in
showers/thunderstorms during the afternoons and evenings, most 
likely Friday and Saturday, and then follow-up overnight and 
early morning fog.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ARJ