373 
FXUS64 KTSA 130140
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
840 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Showers have dissipated this evening with generally clear skies
across the area. This will set up another pleasantly cool night 
for July. Updated to remove any mention of showers fort the rest 
of the evening, otherwise forecast in good shape.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 553 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...

The 00Z TAF forecast discussion follows...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail thru much of the period at most sites.
Guidance indicates the potential for at least some light MVFR fog
at the far NW AR sites around daybreak Tuesday. Sfc winds should
remain fairly light thru the period.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 158 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
At the time of writing, very light showers were developing across
far NW AR and far NE OK. A nearby upper low continues to spin 
away in MO which will bring continued chances for showers across 
parts of NE OK and NW AR this afternoon. Coverage is expected to 
be lower than yesterday given that the low is starting to weaken 
and is slowly moving away. With that said, stronger cells will be 
capable of heavy downpours and locally gusty winds. Storms appear 
to be less likely than yesterday thanks to the upper low 
weakening/mid levels starting to warm. The threat for isolated 
funnels today appears to be lower given lower instability and sfc 
vorticity values but there still remains an outside chance for 
development within the stronger cells across far NE OK and NW AR 
this afternoon and early evening. Any shower activity is expected 
to diminish quickly shortly after sunset leading to a relatively 
cool night for most with some upper 50s possible across parts of 
far NW AR. 

Strong WAA and isentropic ascent late tonight into tomorrow 
morning will yield a few showers across the western half of the 
CWA in E OK. These showers will be very light and will result in 
very low totals of one or two hundredths. Cumulus will stick 
around through the afternoon, but dry weather is largely expected 
past 1PM tomorrow. 

A small ridge will work its way into the area Wednesday leading 
to a dry but warm day. Winds will increase from the S and SSW 
ahead of the next system with gusts around 25mph for some. With a 
small westerly component to the wind, this will allow for 
downslope flow and resulting higher temperatures from 
compressional warming. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s 
will be common. These winds will also tend to be drying and will 
help to keep the dew point and heat indices in check. 

Thursday through the weekend will see multiple waves of 
precipitation move through the region associated with a front and 
upper trough. A low level jet will pump warm and moist air into 
the region through the weekend which will help to fuel our shower 
and storm activity. An upper level trough will push/expand into 
the region as well and will tend to linger through the early part 
of next week thanks to a building Rex block. This trough will see
multiple short waves riding along its periphery through our area 
further enhancing our chances for showers and storms at times. 
Upper level winds and associated wind shear are not overly 
impressive but a strong to marginally severe storm can’t be 
ruled out this weekend. One thing to watch for will be the locally
heavy rainfall threat. PWATs will again be elevated in the 1.7 to
near 2” range late this week and into the weekend. As a result,
any showers/storms that can develop will have the potential to 
produce heavy to locally very heavy rainfall rates. Exact amounts 
are still a little in the air at the moment given considerable 
spread among the guidance but additional data over the next 
several days will help to iron out the details. As it stands now, 
the latest ECMWF and the GFS are in relatively good agreement with
the heaviest rainfall occurring along the main cold front push 
through the area late Sunday night into Monday across the area. 
Again, these details will likely change as more information 
becomes available. 

Snider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  92  74  94 /   0  20   0   0 
FSM   67  92  72  94 /   0  10   0   0 
MLC   65  91  72  92 /   0  20   0   0 
BVO   60  90  72  93 /   0  20   0   0 
FYV   59  88  69  90 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV   62  87  69  90 /   0   0   0   0 
MKO   64  89  72  91 /   0  20   0   0 
MIO   62  89  71  92 /   0  10   0   0 
F10   65  90  72  92 /   0  20   0   0 
HHW   68  91  73  92 /   0  20   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14