911 
FXUS62 KJAX 112011
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
411 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE U.S.-301 CORRIDOR...
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INLAND ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Showers and storms will continue to build today with early areas
of convection building south of the I-10 corridor and in the wake
of the advancing east coast sea breeze. Scattered storms will 
develop as the day progresses with strong and potentially severe 
thunderstorms building and lingering into the late afternoon and
early eveningin vicinity of US Route 301. Southwesterly flow will
shift about overnight to become more out of the southeast as high
pressure ridging extending from out of the northeast extends to
influence the forecast area. High temperatures for today will 
reach into the upper 80s and lower 90s with overnight low 
temperatures in the lower 70s for inland areas and in the mid to 
upper 70s along the coastline.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Prevailing flow will be out of the southeast-south for the
beginning of next week as the center of rotation of a high
pressure system off to the north moves in closer to the Carolina
coastline and exerts more influence over the region. Potential for
severe thunderstorms to build on Monday in the vicinity of the 
I-75 corridor as the east coast sea breeze presses further inland 
with the southeasterly flow and diurnal heating, with more 
dispersed developments into the afternoon and evening hours. 
Temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will be near the seasonal 
average with max temps in the lower 90s and upper 80s for much of 
the area, with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the 
lower 70s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s nearer to 
the shoreline.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Showers and storms will become less widespread after midweek as
more consistent areas of drier air moves through the region on
Thursday and Friday. More moist air will return on Saturday for
inland areas with models showing drier air lingering nearer to the
coastline. Overall, convection is expected to be more widespread
over the weekend than in previous days, with the prevailing flow
becoming more easterly as the center of high pressure rotation
drifts off to the northeast. Temperatures during this period will
be close to the climatological average, with max temps expected to
be slightly lower for areas affected by significant rainfall and
cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Monday]

Showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage across the
inland terminals as the afternoon progresses. We included TEMPO
groups for briefly gusty winds and MVFR conditions at the Duval
County terminals and GNV through 00Z, with brief periods of IFR
conditions also possible during heavier downpours. Southeasterly
surface winds will increase to 10-15 knots at the coastal
terminals this afternoon, where thunderstorm activity will shift
inland, where VFR conditions should prevail through the afternoon
and overnight hours. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary should reach
VQQ towards 21Z. VFR conditions should then prevail area-wide
after 02Z, with southerly surface winds decreasing to 5 knots or
less overnight. Showers may develop near the coastal terminals
after 13Z on Monday, where southeasterly surface winds will
increase to around 10 knots towards 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...

Atlantic ridging centered near Bermuda is extending its axis
westward across the northeast Florida waters. The positioning of
this feature will allow for development of the Atlantic sea breeze
over the near shore waters towards noon, with showers and
thunderstorms developing inland this afternoon as the sea breeze
progresses inland. Thunderstorms may then move back eastward
across our coastal waters early this evening. Atlantic high
pressure will then lift northward early in the week, resulting in
prevailing onshore winds through midweek. Showers and
thunderstorms may increase in coverage on Tuesday night and
Wednesday as an inverted trough moves westward across our region.
High pressure will then weaken off the southeastern seaboard late
this week.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk through Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Forecast crests along the lower Santa Fe River have been lowered,
and minor to moderate flooding is expected to continue during the
next several days, with the flood wave reaching the confluence
with the lower portion of the Suwannee River late this week, when
minor flooding is expected to begin around the Hildreth gauge. 
The St. Marys River has crested near Macclenny, with moderate 
flooding expected to continue during the next few days. Minor 
flooding is forecast to begin along the lower Suwannee River 
bordering Gilchrist County late this week. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  72  89  71  90  71 /  40  40  20  50  10 
SSI  77  87  78  87  78 /  30  20  20  30  20 
JAX  73  90  74  88  75 /  40  30  30  50  20 
SGJ  74  87  75  87  75 /  30  30  30  40  20 
GNV  72  89  72  89  72 /  60  40  30  70  10 
OCF  72  90  72  89  73 /  60  50  30  70  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&