670 
FXUS62 KJAX 100815
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
415 AM EDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Weak high pressure ridge is south of the area around central FL
this morning with multilayered clouds over the region. A sprinkle 
or two is possible early this morning but otherwise radar shows 
no echoes in the forecast area. The high pressure ridge will 
remain nearly stationary today keeping the southwest to west low 
level flow intact but main change from yesterday is mean flow is 
weaker and the PWATs are a bit lower mainly below 2 inches, along 
with weaker mid level lapse rates. This all suggests a lower 
chance of showers and storms today overall (and a later start to 
convection), though some forcing aloft is apparent over northeast 
FL so anticipate some scattered to possibly numerous showers and 
some storms for northeast FL and southeast GA. The HRRR and latest
NAM suggest just isolated to scattered convection today. Should 
see some better low level forcing over the ern zones as west flow 
moves against a weak east coast sea breeze that will be confined 
right along the coast. Main thunderstorm hazards continues to be 
gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and lightning. Any isolated
stronger storms may be confined to area north of I-10 and the
beaches due to higher instabilty there today. Highs expected in 
the upper 80s to lower 90s most areas. Tonight, best chances for 
showers and storms are advertised along the eastern zones due to 
lingering forcing from outflows and the sea breeze. After 
midnight, broad low level confluence over the region and more than
ample moisture could maintain a low probability (around 10-20 
percent) of some isolated showers. Lows tonight in the lower to 
mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...

Light to moderate southwest flow and 1.8-2.2" PWAT values on
Sunday should allow for numerous showers and thunderstorms to 
develop across the area and with an earlier start. Some storms 
could produce heavy rain and gusty winds. On Monday, winds will 
become more southeasterly and a slightly drier air mass will be in
place, but scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms should
still develop, with the highest coverage along the I-75 corridor.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the low-mid
70s. 

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Low level flow will be predominantly southeasterly to easterly through
Saturday. Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and 
thunderstorms are in the forecast through most of the work week, 
though a drier air mass may work its way into region around 
Friday, suppressing convection late in the week. Temperatures will
trend near to slightly below normal through next week. 
 
&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Sunday]

Prevailing VFR cigs (at or above 12 kft) expected through sunrise
today but possible mist around KVQQ. There appears to be a 
slightly less chance of low ceilings below 2 kft through 15Z 
today as low levels look a bit drier. Otherwise, think we will see
a bit of delayed start of shower and storms today. With still 
fairly good chance of showers and storms expected, will keep the 
PROB30 TSRA groups in the TAFs, with best chances probably in the 
20Z-24Z time frame but some showers and storms will be around 
evening time frame before probably ending around midnight. Light 
southwest to west winds will increase to about 6-10 kt after 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...

No significant changes for the marine forecast. High pressure
ridge expected to lift and expand northward the next couple of
days causing the westerly flow to transition to southerly
beginning by Sunday afternoon. Flow will shift to become 
a bit more southeasterly next week as the ridge will be north of
the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each
day...so mariners will need to continue to watch for thunderstorm
hazards. Seas observations from area buoys early this morning are 
near 2-3 ft with periods of 7-8 seconds. This should largely hold 
through Sunday then may see a gradual uptick in seas Monday 
through Wednesday as the flow turns more south and southeast and 
swells also pick up slightly.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents today and Sunday due to low
surf heights generally at or below 2 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Low end daytime dispersions possible on Sunday with light
transport winds courtesy of high pressure. Otherwise, no fire
weather concerns for the next several days. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Moderate and low-end major flooding is forecast for portions of 
the Santa Fe River within the next few days. Moderate flooding is 
ongoing along the St. Marys River at Macclenny. Levels have come 
down from minor to action stage for the Black Creek in Clay 
County. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  89  72  89  71  89 /  50  30  60  10  50 
SSI  90  75  86  77  87 /  50  40  50  10  30 
JAX  91  73  88  73  89 /  40  40  60  10  40 
SGJ  90  73  86  74  87 /  50  50  50  10  40 
GNV  89  71  87  72  89 /  40  30  70  10  70 
OCF  90  72  88  72  89 /  40  30  70  10  70 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&