063 
FXUS63 KMPX 090008
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
708 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

.UPDATED for 00Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

A line of clearing skies has been slowly working southeast 
throughout the day, with some bubbling cumulus appearing beneath the 
clouds over eastern and southern MN and western WI. Temperatures are 
running close to forecast, only a couple degrees behind in the metro 
thanks to the cloud cover, and even just a bit of sun peaking 
through this afternoon should allow us to reach the low to mid 70s 
in most locations. The complete break in the clouds is not expected 
to be long lived, with the return of some mid to high level clouds 
by the late evening and overnight as a shortwave and low level jet 
reintroduce some ascent in the area. 

Chances for rain will be confined to the area south and west of the 
Minnesota River in the area where the low level jet is strongest, 
and compared to yesterday the forcing is farther south. Areas north 
of the river will likely not see any showers whatsoever, including 
the metro and western WI. The NBM has continued to show the GFS bias 
of strong bullseye of QPF and forcing in southern MN, but other 
models have shown a drying trend over the last 36 hours that makes 
it a bit more of an outlier. Ended up blending the more realistic 
HREF with a low weighted NBM for 20-40 PoPs during the peak of the 
system in southern MN, with precipitation chances lingering through 
the period into Saturday. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be 
fairly limited due to a lack of strong instability and shear, 
however a few rumbles of thunder are possible in southern MN 
alongside the showers.

Winds will remain fairly light today at or below 5mph, trending SE 
overnight and increasing to about 10mph as this little bit of upper 
level forcing approaches. Low temperatures will end up warmer than 
last night, with near 60 in southern MN and the metro falling to 
about 50 closer to Lake Superior. With the low level jet bringing in 
just a bit of warm air and moisture, overall area temperatures will 
once again be higher tomorrow than today, with highs in the mid to 
upper 70s, with the coolest temps in southern Minnesota where the 
precipitation and cloud cover will end up. This still puts us below 
normal for the area with typical high values in the low to mid 80s 
in early-mid July.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

Guidance continues to depict a shortwave stalling out over the mid- 
Mississippi valley over this weekend, and potentially even becoming
cutoff into early next week if some of the stronger solutions verify.
This will lead to a lot of rain over the mid-Mississippi and Ohio
valleys over the next day, but will keep Minnesota and Wisconsin dry
for the most part as any appreciable moisture flow into the region 
is impeded. The northern edge of the precipitation shield with this
system could bring some light rainfall at times to southern Minnesota
this weekend, but dry conditions overall are expected until the next
potential system approaches during the middle of next week.

Temperatures look to remain seasonable over the weekend, but warm a
bit into early next week in response to ridging over the southwestern
US nosing into the Upper Midwest. The really warm air aloft remains
well to the southwest of the region so don't see much support for
temperatures to get too hot, most likely the mid to upper 80s by 
early next week. Dew points do not appear to be muggy until the 
middle of next week as well, when the upper level disturbance to our 
south breaks down ad Gulf moisture is again able to flow into the 
region. Models show a decent chance for precipitation next week when
a progressive shortwave is forecast to track along the international
border, but track and timing details remain vague at this range.

 &&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

Skies have remained a bit cloudier than originally anticipated today
thanks to a surge in high clouds across the area, with a few areas
also seeing low level clouds lingering. A line of clearing is rapidly
pushing southeast, already through AXN, with many areas seeing their
cloud cover scattering out. However, except for a brief window
clearing, we will likely see the return of scattered higher clouds
overnight and tomorrow ahead of an incoming weather system. A chance
for MVFR CIGS lingers for RNH and EAU this afternoon, with MVFR more
likely for RWF and MKT with potential -SHRA arriving overnight. Winds
remain light and variable, trending E/SE at around 5kts through the
period.

KMSP...
The primary concern for MSP is variable winds present over the last
few hours, with winds varying between 300-110 degrees at or below
3-4kts. This is expected to trend towards the 110-140 direction at or
below 5kts during the afternoon and overnight. 

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Chance MVFR/SHRA. Wind E 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Slight chance MVFR/SHRA. Wind NE bcmg SE 5-10kts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

Generally VFR conditions throughout for most TAF sites. The exception
is KRWF and KMKT where some showers could move through later tonight.
There is also a chance for thunder but confidence was still too low 
to mention in the TAFs. Could see some MVFR ceilings on Friday at
those two sites as well.

KMSP...
VFR conditions with light southeast winds throughout. Any chance for
precipitation should be southwest of KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Chance MVFR/SHRA. Wind E 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Slight chance MVFR/SHRA. Wind NE bcmg SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ETA
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...JRB