National Weather Service Raw Text Product

419 
FXUS64 KMOB 191807
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
107 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...Tropical Storm Claudette
continues to track to the north-northeast this afternoon across
southeastern MS, eventually tracking into southwestern/west-
central AL this evening into tonight. After a very busy morning
with multiple embedded tornadic supercells we are finally seeing
light at the end of the tunnel. The line of heavy showers and
thunderstorms is over south-central AL stretching from offshore
the FL/AL coastline northeast across the FL panhandle into
Covington county. This line will gradually shift east, moving out
of the CWA over the next hour or so. In its wake, the sun has 
poked out as cloud cover becomes broken with mid-level dry air 
punching in on the south side of Claudettes circulation. This will
allow for temperatures to warm this afternoon into the lower 80's
for most locations. Isolated to scattered showers and 
thunderstorms remain probable today into tonight over much of the 
region. Multiple hazards still remain in place for much of the 
area, and are detailed below.

Inland Hazards:

We continue to have several hazards in place across the area,
including a wind advisory, tornado watch, tropical storm warning,
and flash flood watch.

Wind Advisory: A wind advisory remains in place across our Alabama
and FL counties. Strong winds will continue to mix down through
tonight as strong low level winds above the surface continue to
push across the area. Generally expect wind gusts of 30 to 40mph
to occur.

Tornado Watch: A tornado watch remains in place across south-
central AL into the central FL panhandle, with greatest threat
lingering across Okaloosa and Covington counties where the line 
of strongest convection is slowly pushing east. The tornado threat
should diminish over the next couple of hours. In the meantime, an
environment favorable for tornadoes exists with MLCAPE values
approaching 1,500j/kg overlapping strong low level SRH values
upwards of 200m2/s2 in the lowest 500m. SFC-3km SRH values
approach 400 to 500m2/s2. Given the CAPE/shear overlap, low topped
supercells embedded within the line and in advance of the line are
possible until the line has cleared the area.

Tropical Storm Warning: A tropical storm warning remains in place
for southern/central Mobile and Baldwin counties where wind gusts
upwards of 40mph remain possible through this afternoon and
evening. Winds should continue to gradually wind down and the
warning may be allowed to expire later this afternoon.

Flash Flood Watch: A flash flood watch remains in effect for all
of the CWA. Additional heavy rainfall remains possible this
afternoon and evening with additional totals of 1 to 3" possible.
Along and east of the ongoing convective line, additional totals
of 4 to 6" remain possible. High PWATs around 2 to 2.5" remain in
place across the area, and with deep forcing associated with
Claudette intense tropical downpours remain likely in any shower
or thunderstorm. Flash flood guidance is low given the heavy
rainfall we have seen, and the threat for flash flooding remains.

Coastal Hazards:

Several coastal hazards remain in place, with a Coastal Flood
Advisory, High Risk of Rip Currents, High Surf Warning, and 
Tropical Storm Warning in effect. Each is detailed below.

Coastal Flood Advisory: Remains in effect through 7AM CDT Sunday.
Flooding of low lying, flood prone areas of coastal central
Baldwin and Mobile counties, and coastal Mobile, Baldwin, and
Escambia counties remains possible.

High Surf Warning: A high surf warning remains in place through
6AM CDT Monday as large breaking waves of 7 to 12 feet is expected
along the FL/AL coastline.

Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions remain
persistent across coastal areas of FL/AL and offshore over the
open gulf waters, bays and sounds. Recent wind gusts observed over
the region have suggested generally 20 to 30mph sustained (locally
higher to 40mph) with gusts of 35 to 45mph have been common late
this morning and early afternoon. Given this, the tropical storm
warning remains in effect until further notice.

Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents remains in place through
the near term period. Strong southerly winds with rough waters and
surf will promote strong rip currents.

For the rest of the forecast period tonight through Sunday,
anticipate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms as
Claudette continues northeast/east-northeast into central AL and
western GA. Temperatures will remain warm tonight in the lower to
middle 70's. Sunday highs should be warmer than today generally in
the lower to perhaps middle 80's if enough sun can peak out and
precipitation coverage remains at bay. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...MVFR conditions prevail in the wake of intense
convection over south-central AL and the FL panhandle. Isolated 
to scattered showers and storms remain possible through tonight 
and tomorrow across the region. IFR conditions remain possible 
under any intense convection, however that will be isolated and 
under only the heaviest showers and storms. Gusty southerly winds 
remain possible, with upwards of 30 to 40mph wind gusts possible 
across AL and the FL panhandle. MM/25

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ052-053-055-056-059-
     060-261-262.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ263>266.

     Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ263>266. 

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Warning until 6 AM CDT Monday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for FLZ201>206.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ201-203-205.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ202-204-206. 

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Warning until 6 AM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675. 

&&

$$

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