649 
FXUS63 KOAX 150414
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1114 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

A remnant MCV moved southeast through the forecast area this 
morning producing a few light showers in our southwestern counties. 
Even though this feature continues to move southeast of the 
region and diminish, some subtle little boundaries can be seen at
the surface. One of these subtle boundaries extends east- west 
across north central Neb and another north-south along the MO 
river. Again, these are very weak with surface winds generally 
under 08 kts. Latest satellite imagery shows a small cu field 
along the north central Nebraska boundary where convective 
temperatures have likely been reached and these could eventually 
produce a few showers/isolated thunderstorm that could reach our 
far western CWA this evening before dark. 

We will continue a small chance of showers/thunderstorms along our 
western counties early Tuesday morning, roughly 10-16z as a 
subtle shortwave drops south through the northerly flow aloft. 

Heat will continue to build over the next few days however dewpoints 
remain in the 50s and 60s for the most part. Heat indices should 
stay in the 90s for most areas through Wednesday but may approach 
advisory criteria (105) in far northeast Nebraska on Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Thursday continues to look like the warmest 
days of the week with near- record to record breaking max 
temperatures around or above 100. Heat indices with dewpoints in 
the lower to mid 60s would push us into advisory criteria. 

Model guidance continues to back off of storm chances Thursday night 
into early Friday morning as a cool front slides south through the 
Missouri River valley but will continue some small thunderstorm 
chances. This front will provide some relief to the oppressive heat 
with highs on Friday topping out in the mid to upper 80s. 

Surface high pressure is forecast to build into the area Saturday 
with strong/moist return flow setting up early on Sunday. Model 
solutions begin to diverge as we move later in the weekend as a 
series of shortwaves progress through westerly flow aloft. 
Forecaster uncertainty remains high in the later periods but the 
trend does look cooler and a bit more wet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021

VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kern/Darrah
AVIATION...DEE