National Weather Service Raw Text Product

753 
FXUS62 KJAX 061753
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
153 PM EDT Sun Jun 6 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Monday]

The 18Z TAF period will begin with VFR conditions with the 
Atlantic seabreeze moving through the duval county terminals now 
through 21Z. Most of the shower activity and isolated 
Thunderstorms have remained north and west of the regional 
terminals as a high pressure ridge axis lies over north FL near 
the Florida/Georgia state line. This has allowed winds at KSGJ to 
increase from the southeast behind the seabreeze around 12-14 
knots. Noted VCSH for the duval county terminals after 19-21Z as 
strong surface heating develops additional showers, but most of 
the storms will occur later and have a tempo for KGNV between 00Z-
04Z for Thunderstorms with variable wind gusts up to 25 knots as 
the Gulf coast seabreeze collides with the Atlantic sea breeze 
late this afternoon into the early evening time frame. After 
storms dissipate tonight after 04Z expect light and variable 
winds at inland sites and southeasterly winds 5-10 knots at 
coastal TAF sites with overcast skies due to lingering debris 
clouds. Some scattered ceilings around 2.0 to 2.5 kft may form 
near KSSI after 06Z, but probability for MVFR ceilings at other 
TAF sites are too low to include at this time. Drier conditions 
are expected on Monday over the TAF sites with southerly winds 
increasing to around 10 knots after 14Z. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1010 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Latest IR imagery depicts a considerable area of dense cirrus 
spreading across the region around the poleward side of a mid level 
ridge near Grand Bahama. Meanwhile, a slow moving cutoff upper low 
continues to spin near OK/TX. Southwesterly flow between these 
features will usher a low-amplitude shortwave into the Florida 
panhandle and across southeastern GA today. The upper ridge is 
progged to lift northward through the afternoon, bringing a drier 
airmass into portions of northeast FL as it does so.

At the surface, a ridge axis associated with an Atlantic based 
surface high will extend across north FL/southern GA, promoting a
southeasterly surface wind across the area. Gradients will 
tighten between a surface trough over southern GA this afternoon 
resulting in gusty winds up to 25 mph at locations along the 
immediate coast. Under this flow pattern the Atlantic sea breeze 
will move inland at a quicker pace this afternoon.

As mentioned above, drier mid-level air will work into the coastal 
and southern FL zones this afternoon, which may limit afternoon t-
storm coverage along the Atlantic sea breeze. Deeper moisture is 
expected across the Suwannee Valley and inland southeast GA. The 
combination of the deep moisture, an approaching shortwave, and 
convergence along the Gulf sea breeze should lead to numerous storms 
initiating as early as noon across the Suwannee and inland GA areas. 
A second wave of convection is likely along the I-75 corridor in 
northeast FL this evening as the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes 
collide. Similar to yesterday, stronger storms this afternoon will 
be capable of strong outflow winds and locally heavy rainfall.

Blanket of cloud cover and breezy onshore flow have kept temps 
fairly warm through the early morning hours. As of 3 AM, readings 
along the coast were in the upper 70s while low 70s were observed at 
inland sites. Highs this afternoon will feature low 90s across NE FL 
where a drier airmass will start to intrude, upper 80s across inland 
SE GA where cloudiness and afternoon convection is likely, and mid 
80s along the coast with a gusty sea breeze. With abundant cloud 
cover again, lows tonight will be very close to those observed this 
morning.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

A mid to upper level ridge over the ern Gulf of Mexico, northeast
across the FL peninsula and off the VA and NC coasts will slowly 
retrograde this period. Atlantic sfc ridge axis will remain 
across GA and the Carolinas as well. Averaged south-southeast 
wind in the 1000-700 mb layer about 10-15 kt over the area on 
Monday, becomes southeast about 10 kt on Tuesday. Given this, we
 the merging of east and west coast sea breezes well inland on 
Monday and result in elevated rain chances again near 40-60 
percent from Suwannee Valley area northward into inland southeast 
GA (where PWATs are up to about 1.9 inches), then tapering down to
10-20 percent for coastal zones due to the sea breeze moving in 
early. Mon night, remnant isolated to scattered showers and storms
will dissipate through the evening...though could be some heavy 
rains inland southeast GA due to weak disturbance aloft that may 
be passing through. On Tuesday, models have been suggesting lower 
PWATs filtering in from the south and southeast for several days 
now, and latest GFS shows PWAT around 1.6 inches, with mainly mid 
level RH dropping quickly. Thus, we will continue to show lower 
rain chances as the east coast sea breeze moves inland quickly and
any sea breeze merger takes place further west than on Monday. 
Tues night, only scant rain chances due to the drier air moving 
in. For this period, max temps will be in the upper 80s to lower 
90s most areas except for the coast where they top out around the 
mid 80s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Surface high pressure ridge axis across GA and Carolinas on 
Wednesday will begin to shift southward through the end of the 
week as a pre-frontal trough and cold frontal boundary sink south
along the east coast. Sfc troughing may extend back through north
and central GA by late Fri and into Sat. Precipitation chances 
still look low during this time frame, especially across northeast
FL where drier air will be located. Some uncertainty for POPs on 
Saturday given some moisture level differences in the GFS and ECMWF.
Temperatures will be near or above seasonal norms, with some mid 
90s possible inland zones. Coastal areas will see increased max 
temps closer to about 90 due to more prevailing west-southwest 
flow taking shape on Fri and Sat.


.MARINE...

Ridge axis will lay across north Florida today, promoting a
breezy southeasterly wind over the coastal waters this afternoon.
Winds will back toward the east across the nearshore waters as the 
sea breeze pushes inland. Caution level winds will bring combined 
seas to 3-4 ft nearshore and 4-5 offshore today. High pressure will 
remain east of the coastal waters through much of the upcoming week 
before shifting to the southeast next weekend.

Rip Currents: A persistent ocean swell and 3-4 ft breakers will lead 
to a High Rip Current risk at NE FL beaches this afternoon and 
potentially again on Monday. Moderate risk is expected at SE GA 
beaches today and Monday.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No red flags anticipated and only headline today will be for some
elevated dispersion levels for parts of inland northeast FL zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  71  87  70  88  69 /  60  70  40  20  10 
SSI  77  83  74  83  74 /  10  20  10  10   0 
JAX  75  89  71  88  70 /  10  20  10  10   0 
SGJ  76  86  73  85  72 /  10  20   0   0   0 
GNV  73  90  70  91  69 /  60  20  20  20  10 
OCF  73  91  70  92  70 /  50  20  10  20  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&