169 
FXUS63 KMPX 051056
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
556 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

Hottest air of the season remains in place today as upper level 
thermal ridge extends from the Dakotas across the Upper Midwest. 
While in a more flattened form than yesterday, the bulging of heat 
with 580+ dam H5 heights and around +25C H85 temps will easily 
produce max temps at the surface in the 95-100 degree range for 
nearly the entire WFO MPX coverage area. Though some nocturnal 
jetting is helping spread some mid-to-upper level cloud cover across 
the region overnight, no clouds will impede the high sun angle to 
work with the strong WAA to produce the well-above normal 
temperatures today (around 20 agrees above normal for both max and 
min temps). Considering today's record high at both MSP and EAU is 
only 92, those both look like good candidates for new records. STC 
will be a little tougher at 96 but not unreasonable.

Another warm night is expected tonight with virtually no change in 
the upper level pattern expected and the wobbling front near the 
international border remaining in that region. Lows tonight for much 
of the coverage area will be 70+ with only the I-90 corridor and 
interior western WI dropping below 70.

A few more clouds are expected on Sunday as the front to the north 
takes on better definition as a cold front, sweeps across the 
Dakotas  early Sunday then moves into northern MN by Sunday 
afternoon. A focus of attention turns to the west as a shortwave 
trough axis trailing the cold front also moves eastward. While warm 
air will certainly be prevalent in the lower levels, upper level 
cooling will result in steepening lapse rates within an environment 
that will have decreased capping. With the front approaching an 
environment containing dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s, it 
will not be unreasonable to have isolated to scattered 
showers/thunderstorms developing late afternoon into early evening 
in western MN. With instability increasing in conjunction with 
frontal lift, some of these storms could percolate to strong to 
severe levels with large hail or damaging winds, thus having SPC 
maintain a Marginal Risk in western MN for Sunday certainly is 
valid. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

The main impacts for the long term are a prolonged period of  
temperatures well above normal for early June.

Broad scale ridging will remain in control over much of the CONUS,  
with a lone cutoff low slowly trekking through the southern Plains. 
This means that the jet stream will remain well to our north 
throughout the long term period. 

Clouds increase Sunday evening ahead of a weak frontal frontal  
boundary approaching from the northwest. There is uncertainty 
regarding where a weak, closed low over the southern Plains will 
track and what influence it may have over the next several days. Mid 
range models bring the northern extent of Gulf moisture into the area
and results in higher dew points beginning Sunday night. Most 
guidance keeps the precipitation to our north, but will need to be 
watched closely as the SPC held onto the Marginal risk for Day 2.

For the work week, we'll keep daily low end PoPs for potential 
thunderstorms/showers and hot conditions throughout. Highs in the 
90s look likely into Thursday, with a slight reprieve of the upper  
80s for Friday. The end of the long term period appears to be more 
active in terms of showers and storms, but the NBM keeps a broad 
brush of PoPs in the forecast until models come into better agreement
on evolution of the upper level pattern. Overall, not much rain is 
anticipated this week due to the uncertainty with daily convection 
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

Solid VFR conditions throughout. Breezy SW winds 10-15kt with gusts
20-25kt. Occasional passing high cirrus clouds.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR late. Winds SW 15-20G25 kts. 
Mon...VFR. Chc TSRA/. Wind S 5-10 kts. 
Tue...VFR. Winds S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for Anoka-Carver-Dakota-
     Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington.

WI...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...BPH
AVIATION...JPC